Glen Appears on KRON4 as their East Bay Foreclosure Expert

Recently we received a call from Kate Thompson w/ KRON4 in regards to East Bay foreclosures. Glen met with Kate and talked about the effects that foreclosures had in a San Pablo neighborhood. If case you missed the clip when it aired, you can check it out below.

The Bay Area Housing Market Remains Fundamentaly Off Kilter

The new Dataquick report for the Bay Area housing market came out today and if you’re looking for some good news, there’s not much in there for you. While prices are still holding their ground, the sales volume is down and financing still hard to get.

“The sales and price data remain choppy, with more ups and downs and inconsistencies than we’d typically see. It’s partly the season – January and February are often atypical and don’t serve as good barometers. But it’s more than that. The market remains fundamentally off kilter. There’s still relatively little lending going on in the upper price ranges, and little adjustable-rate financing, which had been vital to the Bay Area. Investor and cash-only deals remain well above normal, as does the level of sales involving distressed property,” said John Walsh, MDA DataQuick president.

“Despite the widening stability seen in the housing market in recent months, the outlook remains murky,” he said. “Whether prices will firm, or remain firm, will depend largely on three factors: The market’s response as the government reduces its housing stimulus, the economy’s ability to gain traction, and the decisions that lenders and borrowers will make in countless distress cases. The key question is how much more distressed inventory is coming, and when.”

That indeed IS the key question and it’s something that we’re constantly tracking, so stay tuned for more news from the trenches.

DQ News Bay Area Housing Chart (source)

Keeping an Eye on the Resetting ARMs, the Bay Area Housing Market’s Ticking Time Bomb

The folks over at SNL published a new ARM reset chart from Credit Suisse & if you’re interested in what’s in store for the Bay Area housing market, you’re going to want to keep an eye on this.

Thankfully, due to the low interest rate environment that we’re currently in, it seems as if we’ve been granted a temporary reprieve from a wave of potential defaults stemming from dramatic increases in monthly payments.  In fact, many borrowers with ARMs could actually see their payments decrease.

So does this mean we’re out of the woods? …Not exactly.

1. Rates are still at historic lows and are bound to rise sooner or later.

2. Property values have fallen dramatically since the peak years and many borrowers looking to refinance won’t be able to due to fact that their properties won’t appraise.

This is something that we’re going to have to deal with before the local housing market can recover.

For more analysis, I recommend checking out: Calculated Risk: New Credit Suisse ARM Recast Chart

Glen’s East Bay Housing Numbers (through February 2010)

I’ve been tracking East Bay housing statistics in 38 cities since June of 2005 and 4th quarter 2009 saw the lowest levels of inventory since I began. With an increase of buyers, (both home owners and investors), the lower price range properties began to stabilize with some areas actually begin to creep up. The area, as a whole had a 1.7 months supply of homes in December.

However, January and February has seen some interesting changes. Overall, we’ve seen an increase in inventory (up 31%) in the last two months. That’s an unusually high increase during a period that we normally see a much smaller spike.  Month supply has increased from 1.7 months to 2.2 months for the entire 38 city SF East Bay coverage.

REOs and short sales are relatively stable and have not been a contributing factor. Sales have slowed some. Comparing a running 4 month total, we’re off by approximately 25% in the last two months. However, the last 4 month period, (November through February) is traditionally considered the slowest time of the year.

It appears that the lower priced areas are showing signs of stabilizing with small increases in price due to competition and lack of inventory. Distressed properties are still a major factor in recent sales. The affluent areas and higher priced properties are seeing lower prices selling on average for less than asking. We’re seeing more distressed properties show up in these areas.

Click here to download a copy of my East Bay housing numbers for February 2010