East Bay Housing Data – Glen’s Numbers through May 2011

by Glen Bell on June 6, 2011

The latest East Bay Housing Numbers are in, and surprisingly we saw a slight drop (1.7%) in overall inventory. This is the first reduction in the number of homes listed for sale since November of 2010 and slightly surprising considering that we’re entering peak summer home buying season.

Distressed properties, (REOs and Short Sales), are still a large part of our local markets. Although this is slowly becoming less of a factor with listings. 47% of the active listings, 70% of our pending sales and 56% of the sales over the last 4 months are distressed properties.

The Pending/Active Ratio, which we use to gauge general market strength, has increased slightly to .97. Trending to towards a balanced market (1.00). Keep in mind that there are a large number of short sales that remain in pending status for longer periods than normal, this keeps the pending count higher, and in turn skews the ratio to the upside. With that in mind, we would consider East Bay Housing to be in a slight buyer’s market.

Recent News

For all of those following the recent stories circulating about the latest Case-Shiller findings on the housing market, showing a nationwide double dip in housing prices, but I believe the news from Altos research may be closer to the truth.

Many experts have been predicting a U-Shaped recovery. Last year we saw a false bottom. Now, we hear that we might be in a Catfish Recovery.

A Catfish Recovery?

“[Altos Research VP Scott] Sambucci laid it out by describing the catfish as a bottom dweller that moves slowly, feeding off the lake or river floor for a while, then heads up to the surface and back down, bobbing up and down without a distinct pattern or clear direction.”

“Altos says markets should plan for prices over the long term to hit a bottom, rise a bit, sink back down, rise again.”

- via Double Dip: Altos Says Prices Have Been Steadily Rising Since Then

Yes, we’ve been saying for several months now that we were seeing further reductions in values for the SF Bay Area. However, we have been seeing different scenarios depending on what area you focused on and at what price level, once again proving that the real story is being told at the micro-market level.

As always, I’m available if you want to talk about the market, or explore your options for buying, selling or investing in East Bay real estate. You can reach me directly at 510.333.4460.

You can download an entire copy of Glen’s East Bay Housing Numbers Through May 2011 here.