East Bay Housing Data – Glen’s Numbers through November 2011
Welcome to the latest edition of my East Bay Housing numbers. For the past few years, I’ve been compiling East Bay housing data directly from MLS data and publishing it for everyone to view.
- For the 7th month in a row we’ve seen another slight decrease in inventory, a 30% drop since the end of April. The last time we’ve seen inventory levels this low was in February 2010.
- The months supply for the combined 38 city area that I track is now 2.3 months, below normal and again reaching lows we haven’t seen since February 2010.
- Our Pending/Active Ratio has increased again to 1.33, normally considered in a seller’s market range. Keep in mind that this number is overstated due to the large number of short sales that remain in pending status for longer periods than normal.
- Distressed properties, (REOs and Short Sales), are still a large part of our local markets. 50% of the active listings, 75% of our pending sales (primarily due to the large number of short sales – 58%), and 51% of the sales over the last 4 months are distressed properties.
Other Recent News
Housing Market Sees Signs of Stability: Clear Capital
The housing market may be stabilizing as house prices and REO saturation rates show little change on a quarterly and yearly basis, according to Clear Capital’s most recent Home Data Index.
NAR publishes forecasts each month based on the inflow of updated economic data. Here are the latest take-aways regarding the outlook for next year:
- No economic recession in sight. The GDP is expected to rise 2.5 percent in 2012. That is, the income of everyone combined in the U.S. will rise by 2.5 percent.
- The net job creation is expected to be 1.5 to 2 million. The national unemployment rate will slide to 8.4 percent by this time next year.
- The baseline forecast for existing home sales is a rise of 5 percent, while home prices will finally turn positive, albeit by only 2 percent. The total industry commission revenue, therefore, can be expected to rise by around 7 percent.
- New home sales will rise by 16 percent. A stronger comeback is in the cards, after brutal declines during the housing bust years.
Bay Area Home Sales Up From 2010, Prices Down
“We’ve been watching the real estate market take itty bitty baby steps in the direction of normalcy, but that trend paused last month. ARM and jumbo loan usage went back down, cash and investor sales went back up as a portion of the market. This may well be a short-term pause while the market recalibrates changes in loan thresholds. We’ll know more in a few months,” said John Walsh, DataQuick president.
C.A.R. October sales and price report
“While October’s sales were on track with expectations, the month-to-month drop in the median price was larger than usual for this time of year,” said C.A.R. Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young. “Because of the lower Fannie, Freddie, and FHA conforming loan limits, some buyers purchased less expensive homes so that their mortgages would meet the criteria for the lower limit, while others were unable to qualify for nonconforming loans that typically have higher down payment requirements and higher mortgage rates. The resulting change in the mix of sales drove down October’s median price.”
As always, I’m available if you want to talk about the market, or explore your options for buying, selling or investing in East Bay real estate. You can reach me directly at 510.333.4460.
You can download an entire copy of Glen’s Numbers through November 2011 here.
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