East Bay Housing Data – Glen’s Numbers through July 2011

With confidence buckling and all the economic distractions we’re now witnessing, keeping pace with our local market statistics has taken somewhat of a backseat. My apologies for such a late post.

Following our round table discussion at our last Better Homes & Gardens agent weekly meeting, I came from it with the distinct impression that we’re now seeing many buyers fall into two camps:

1) Backing off and going on the fence again given all of the uncertainty.

2) Seeing the opportunity that exists. The bargain hunters are out and they’re feeding on the available low interest rates, having more homes available to pick from, and with less competition.

The July numbers

•For the third month in a row we’ve seen a slight decrease in inventory, a 6.2% drop since the end of April. This isn’t typical because we’re usually picking up steam this time of year. We saw nearly a 25.9% increase last year during the same period.

•The months supply for the combined 38 city area that I track is now 3.2 months.

• Our Pending/Active Ratio has increased slightly to 1.01, slowly returning towards a “normal” market range. Again, keep in mind that this number is overstated due to the large number of short sales that remain in pending status for longer periods than normal.

• Distressed properties, (REOs and Short Sales), are still a large part of our local markets. Although this is slowly becoming less of a factor with listings. 46% of the active listings, 73% of our pending sales (primarily due to the large number of short sales – 56%), and 50% of the sales over the last 4 months are distressed properties.

Other Recent News

Homebuyers have mixed reactions to market swings - Eve Mitchell, Contra Costa Times

“The past two weeks have certainly been a test for the Bay Area housing market. Wild stock swings, the credit downgrade and continuing concerns about the economy have certainly weighed on buyers, sellers and their agents.”

Mortgage rates fall to 30-year near record low -Derek Kravitz, Associated Press

“Fixed mortgage rates fell to at or near record lows. That’s good news for the few who can afford to buy a home or are able to refinance. But the rates have done little to lift the ailing housing market.”

“Many people can’t take advantage of the low mortgage rates. Banks are insisting on higher credit scores and larger down payments from applicants. Others have too little equity invested in their homes to qualify for loans.”

As always, I’m available if you want to talk about the market, or explore your options for buying, selling or investing in East Bay real estate. You can reach me directly at 510.333.4460.

You can download an entire copy of Glen’s East Bay Housing Numbers Through July 2011 here.

East Bay Housing Data – Glen’s Numbers through June 2011

The latest East Bay Housing numbers are in and for the second month in a row we’ve seen a slight decrease in inventory, 4.6% since the end of April. This isn’t typical because we’re usually picking up steam this time of year. We saw nearly a 14% increase last year. The months supply for the combined 38 city area that I track is now 3.3 months.

Our Pending/Active Ratio has increased slightly to .99, slowly returning towards a “normal” market range. Again, keep in mind that this number is overstated due to the large number of short sales that remain in pending status for longer periods than normal.

Distressed properties, (REOs and Short Sales), are still a large part of our local markets. Although this is slowly becoming less of a factor with listings. 45% of the active listings, 68% of our pending sales and 52% of the sales over the last 4 months are distressed properties.

Other Recent Housing News

A MacroMarkets survey of over 100 economists, investment strategists, and housing market analysts regarding their 5-year expectations for future home prices in the United States showed that…

“A significant majority of our panelists believe that the bottom for home prices arrived in the first quarter or will arrive sometime before year-end (2011). Despite persistent macroeconomic uncertainty and unprecedented housing market dysfunction, almost two-thirds of the panelists see the U.S. residential real estate market as at an historic turning point,” Robert Shiller said in a statement.

Price Expectations Survey, compiled from 108 responses of a diverse group of economists, real estate. “69 panelists who are currently forecasting a 2011 turning point predict less than two percent average annual growth in nominal home prices over the five-year period ending December 2015.”

If we really are close to a true bottom in home prices, that this combined with the continued low interest rates makes for a favorable buying environment.

From Reality Check: It’s a homebuyer’s market

“You’re seeing more and more markets across the country right now where the cost to acquire and own property financially simply makes more sense than renting,” says Budge Huskey, president and chief operating officer of Coldwell Banker Real Estate.

Huskey says buyers need to focus on their local market conditions instead of reacting to what they read about nationally.

We know there is a pent up demand from buyers simply looking for the right time, he says: “They’re trying to time what they consider to be the bottom of the market, which we know is almost impossible to do.”

If you’re looking to buy do your homework, consult a banker, and look only at homes you can comfortably afford. If it’s your first, remember it doesn’t need to be your dream home. Buying a starter, building equity, and trading up remains a good strategy.

As always, I’m available if you want to talk about the market, or explore your options for buying, selling or investing in East Bay real estate. You can reach me directly at 510.333.4460.

You can download an entire copy of Glen’s East Bay Housing Numbers Through June 2011 here.

East Bay Housing Data – Glen’s Numbers through May 2011

The latest East Bay Housing Numbers are in, and surprisingly we saw a slight drop (1.7%) in overall inventory. This is the first reduction in the number of homes listed for sale since November of 2010 and slightly surprising considering that we’re entering peak summer home buying season.

Distressed properties, (REOs and Short Sales), are still a large part of our local markets. Although this is slowly becoming less of a factor with listings. 47% of the active listings, 70% of our pending sales and 56% of the sales over the last 4 months are distressed properties.

The Pending/Active Ratio, which we use to gauge general market strength, has increased slightly to .97. Trending to towards a balanced market (1.00). Keep in mind that there are a large number of short sales that remain in pending status for longer periods than normal, this keeps the pending count higher, and in turn skews the ratio to the upside.  With that in mind, we would consider East Bay Housing to be in a slight buyer’s market.

Recent News

For all of those following the recent stories circulating about the latest Case-Shiller findings on the housing market, showing a nationwide double dip in housing prices, but I believe the news from Altos research may be closer to the truth.

Many experts have been predicting a U-Shaped recovery. Last year we saw a false bottom. Now, we hear that we might be in a Catfish Recovery.

A Catfish Recovery?

“[Altos Research VP Scott] Sambucci laid it out by describing the catfish as a bottom dweller that moves slowly, feeding off the lake or river floor for a while, then heads up to the surface and back down, bobbing up and down without a distinct pattern or clear direction.”

“Altos says markets should plan for prices over the long term to hit a bottom, rise a bit, sink back down, rise again.”

- via Double Dip: Altos Says Prices Have Been Steadily Rising Since Then

Yes, we’ve been saying for several months now that we were seeing further reductions in values for the SF Bay Area. However, we have been seeing different scenarios depending on what area you focused on and at what price level, once again proving that the real story is being told at the micro-market level.

As always, I’m available if you want to talk about the market, or explore your options for buying, selling or investing in East Bay real estate. You can reach me directly at 510.333.4460.

You can download an entire copy of Glen’s East Bay Housing Numbers Through May 2011 here.

If you’re looking for more news throughout the month, check out the MyEastBayAgent Twitter feed for the latest links.

Looking Closer into the East Bay REO & Short Sale Market

When I was compiling my latest set of East Bay Housing Numbers, I decided to take a closer look at the distressed property market and chart the sales since the beginning of 2007.

The graphs consist of all sales on a month by month basis for both Contra Costa and Alameda Counties. It also shows what portion of sales were distressed property (both REO and Short Sales) since the beginning of 2007 to current April 2011 numbers.

The influence of distressed properties reached their peak during the first quarter of 2009, consisting of 72% to 76% of all sales in Alameda County, and 81% to 83% of all sales in Contra Costa County.

While the number of REO sales has since declined to its current levels, (48% in Contra Costa County and 55% in Alameda County), the number of short sales have gradually increased, now almost as much of a factor on sales as REOs.

East Bay Housing Data – Glen’s Numbers through April 2011

The latest East Bay Housing Numbers are in, and again we’re seeing a slight increase in both inventory levels and in pendings compared to March. Inventory is up 11.4% and pendings are up 20.7% since the beginning of the year.

The months supply is now 3.5 months, above the 3.1 months at the beginning of the year and well above the 2.6 month supply we saw last year at this time.

Our Pending/Active Ratio has increased slightly to .92, slowly returning towards a “normal” market.

Distressed properties, (REOs and Short Sales), are still a large part of our local markets making up 60% of the active listings, 77% of our pending sales and 49% of the sales over the last 4 months.

As always, I’m available if you want to talk about the market, or explore your options for buying, selling or investing in East Bay real estate. You can reach me directly at 510.333.4460.

You can download an entire copy of Glen’s East Bay Housing Numbers Through April 2011 here.

Other News from Around the Web

“Housing Values: The Perfect Storm,” 4/26/2011 – DSNews

“With all the news of still-declining home prices, most buyers are keeping their feet firmly planted on the sidelines unless they’re sure they’re getting a bargain.” – Carrie Bay

Sales up, Prices Down for Bay Area Housing Market, April 14, 2011 – DQNews

“Bay Area home sales last month logged the best March in four years, barely, as prices slipped back a notch. A variety of indicators – including investor and cash purchase levels and adjustable-rate loan use – pointed toward a more normal market, though suggested that it’s still a ways off, a real estate information service reported. “

“The housing market has certainly moved well back from the abyss of two years ago, but there is quite a ways to go before it’s even remotely normal. The Bay Area has much less of a foreclosure problem than the rest of the state, but by its own standards it’s still a sizeable problem that acts as a drag on prices. The big issue continues to be mortgage financing, which is still problematic for many potential borrowers,” said John Walsh, DataQuick president.

“California Mortgage Defaults Drop Again; Foreclosures up,” April 19, 2011 – DQNews

California’s priciest zip codes collectively saw mortgage defaults buck the market-wide trend again and rise slightly quarter-to-quarter, while their defaults fell less on a year-over-year basis than in the overall market. The state’s 80 zip codes with median sale prices of $800,000 or more last quarter posted a 5.8 percent quarter-to-quarter increase in default notices and a 4.7 percent year-over-year decline.

At the other end of the price spectrum, zips with medians below $200,000 saw first-quarter defaults drop 5.5 percent from the prior quarter and drop 17.7 percent from a year ago.

If you’re looking for more news throughout the month, check out the MyEastBayAgent Twitter feed for the latest links.

5 of Berkeley’s Best Make the Top 100 Bay Area Restaurants List

San Francisco Chronicle’s “Top 100 Bay Area Restaurants” came out the beginning of April with Michael Bauer, Chronicle Restaurant Critic, beginning his annual publication by stating; “2010 should go down as the most exciting year of Bay Area dining in more than a quarter century.”

Five of Berkeley’s finest make the cut.

Chez Panisse, as always, the Alice Waters Influence.

Corso Trattoria & Rivoli, the Wendy Brucker & Roscoe Skipper Team, both absolutely favorites of mine.

and finally Japanese Cusines; O Chame on Fourth Street and the newest member Ippuku in downtown Berkeley.

Check it out online. Did any of your favorites make the list?

Taking a Closer Look Into the East Bay Condo Market Slowdown

We are seeing a slowdown in the condo market and I decided to run some numbers to verify what I’ve been hearing.

Below is a chart showing the median price of condo/townhouses in selected cities on a quarterly basis over the past two years, (ending March 31, 2011).

Some are more obvious than others, but values have come down in the last two or three quarters. I expect that trend to continue. Keep in mind there are seasonal influences and there have been some ups and downs over the past couple of years in terms of inventory, demand and values.

The biggest influences with condos in this market are the difficulty in getting a loan based on the condo certifications, declining values, and high HOA dues. Many are being purchased now all cash. However, some investors have stayed away because prices have still not come down enough to cash flow, and many times that is because of the HOA dues.

Carolyn Said highlighted this in her recent article in the San Francisco Chronicle

“In a vicious cycle, lending restrictions bar potential buyers from getting a mortgage in complexes where too many units are behind in homeowner association dues, are not owner occupied or are concentrated in one party’s hands. Units is such complexes must sell for all cash, which drives down their price.”

Eve Mitchell highlights another problem for the condo market in her recent Contra Costa Times article

“In a housing market in which prices continue to be battered by foreclosures and short sales, many would-be buyers of condominiums in the Bay Area instead have found bargain-priced single-family houses as the price gap between the two housing choices closes.”

In summary, the deteriorating HOA financial situations along with the tightening loan requirements & the sudden viability of single family alternatives, have resulted in a East Bay condo market that is struggling to find it’s footing right now.

East Bay Housing Data – Glen’s Numbers through March 2011

The latest East Bay Housing numbers are in and they’re showing a slight increase in inventory levels and in pendings compared to February. Pendings are up about 3.1% over last month.

Sales remain sluggish. We’re seeing, as a trend in most cities, days on market slowly increasing, median prices decreasing slightly and the average sales price coming down slightly in comparison to the average list price.

Our Pending/Active Ratio has slightly increased to .90, still indicating that we are, on the whole, in a “buyer’s market,” but slowly returning towards a “normal” market.

The months supply remained steady at 3.3 months, still above the 2.5 month supply we saw last year at this time.

Looking Forward

I saw this post from DQ News Bay Area Housing Market Stuck In Neutral; Investors, Cash Buyers Active & thought it accurately describes what I think is in store for the Bay Are housing market.

“Over the next few months we’ll begin to see how much of the pent-up demand will play out during the traditional spring-summer home-buying season. Our sense is that we could see sales jump significantly from today’s subpar levels if the economic outlook improves, people start feeling more secure in their jobs and credit terms loosen. Some potential buyers also want to see evidence that prices have bottomed. Of course, one group will have to sit this home-buying season out: Those who don’t have enough, if any, equity in their homes.”

As always, I’m available if you want to talk about the market, or explore your options for buying, selling or investing in East Bay real estate. You can reach me directly at 510.333.4460.

You can download an entire copy of Glen’s East Bay Housing Numbers Through March 2011 here.

Great Times at Yoshi’s Jazz Club in Oakland’s Jack London Square

I like to think of myself as an avid jazz enthusiast and Yoshi’s Jazz Club in Oakland has, over the years, become my favorite venue. I became a “regular” while attending shows beginning at the “hideaway jazz club” on Claremont and on to their current location at Jack London Square. It seems like just about every major jazz artist has played here.

“Yoshi’s is one of the best jazz clubs in the world,” says Kenny Burrell, the guitar master who celebrated his 75th birthday with a special concert at the club last summer. “They have the best sound system, the best equipment, and they take extra effort to present the music to the public in the best possible way.” – The Spot for Jazz

Leading the way, Shelley Altura, organized our group from Better Homes & Gardens to attend Friday night’s show featuring Stanley Clarke and of course with her very own son Charles Altura, masterfully playing the guitar.

I loved Stanley on the acoustic bass, but as expected, he stepped it up on the electric sharing the stage with his younger group of musicians and coaxing the very best out of them together and on solos with great upbeat energy. What great chemistry and it really does sound like he’s been playing for ever with drummer Ronald Bruner Jr, who along with Charles played on Stanley’s recent 2010 Grammy winning CD for best contemporary jazz album.

Their first set was so good that I stayed on for the second set, one that I believe I enjoyed even more than the first. Great stuff, great venue, great group!!!

Time to Jump in and Buy Real Estate Again!

In an article posted on CnnMoney, on March 28th, titled “Real estate: It’s time to buy again,” Shawn Tully, senior editor, states; “Forget stocks. Don’t bet on gold. After four years of plunging home prices, the most attractive asset class in America is housing.”

This is a compelling article, with an optimistic overview on the housing market well worth the read!

This following quote lays the foundation and leads to an insightful argument in favor of recovery in the housing market.

If all the noise you’re hearing about housing has you totally confused, join the crowd. One day you’ll read that owning a home has never been more affordable. The next day you’ll see news that housing starts have plunged to nearly their lowest level in half a century, as headlines announced in March. After four years of falling prices and surging foreclosures, it’s hard to know what to think. Even Robert Shiller and Karl Case can’t agree. The two economists, who together created the widely followed S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price indices, are right now offering sharply contrasting views of housing’s future. Shiller recently warned that the chances were high for a further double-digit drop in U.S. home prices. But in an interview with Fortune, Case took a far brighter view: “The lack of new home building is a huge help that a lot of people are ignoring,” says Case. “People think I’m crazy to be optimistic, but housing is looking like the little engine that could.”

flickr photo credit Jitze Couperus Used under a creative commons license.