East Bay Housing Data – Glen’s Numbers through September 2011
The latest East Bay housing numbers are in & for the fifth month in a row we’ve seen another slight decrease in inventory, a 12.5% drop since the end of April. This isn’t typical because we’re usually just starting to back off about this time of year. We saw nearly a 38.4% increase last year during the same period.
The months supply for the combined 38 city area that I track is now 2.9 months, slightly below normal.
Our Pending/Active Ratio has increased again slightly to 1.08, again slowly returning towards a “normal” market range. Keep in mind that this number is overstated due to the large number of short sales that remain in pending status for longer periods than normal.
Distressed properties, (REOs and Short Sales), are still a large part of our local markets. Although this is slowly becoming less of a factor with listings. 47% of the active listings, 74% of our pending sales (primarily due to the large number of short sales – 57%), and 49% of the sales over the last 4 months are distressed properties.
Other Recent News
Here are a few points that stood out to me from C.A.R.’s California Housing Market Forecast for 2012
Good fundamentals, but still dependent on the consumer & jobs.
“Despite the run of unforeseen global events in the first half of this year that slowed the overall economy, 2011 home sales are projected to essentially remain unchanged from last year,” said C.A.R. President Beth L. Peerce. “Looking ahead, the fundamentals of the housing market – such as low mortgage rates, high housing affordability, and favorable home prices – are expected to continue, but at this point, a strong housing recovery will depend on consumer confidence, job creation, and the availability and cost of home loans.”
Improved mix.
“Discretionary sellers will play a larger role in next year’s housing market,” said Peerce. “Those who held off selling in 2011 may list their homes in 2012, thereby improving the mix of homes for sale compared with the last few years. Additionally, distressed sales will remain an important segment of the overall market as lenders continue to work through the foreclosure process.”
Another transition year.
“2012 will be another transition year for the California housing market, as the continued uncertainty about the U.S. financial system, job growth, and the stability of the overall economy remain in the forefront for all market participants,” said C.A.R. Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young. “An improvement in job growth, consumer spending, and corresponding gains in housing are essential to a broader recovery in the economy, but would-be buyers will remain cautious as they weigh these myriad uncertainties against the clear opportunities presented by today’s very affordable housing market.
As always, I’m available if you want to talk about the market, or explore your options for buying, selling or investing in East Bay real estate. You can reach me directly at 510.333.4460.
You can download an entire copy of Glen’s East Bay Housing Numbers Through September 2011 here.
East Bay Housing Data – Glen’s Numbers through August 2011
The August numbers are in and for the fourth month in a row we’ve seen another slight decrease in inventory, a 9% drop since the end of April. This isn’t typical because we’re usually just starting to back off about this time of year.
We saw nearly a 32% increase last year during the same period. The months supply for the combined 38 city area that I track is now 3 months, slightly below normal.
Our Pending/Active Ratio has increased slightly to 1.06, again slowly returning towards a “normal” market range. Keep in mind that this number is overstated due to the large number of short sales that remain in pending status for longer periods than normal.
Distressed properties, (REOs and Short Sales), are still a large part of our local markets. Although this is slowly becoming less of a factor with listings. 47% of the active listings, 73% of our pending sales (primarily due to the large number of short sales – 56%), and 49% of the sales over the last 4 months are distressed properties.
From Around the Web…
Last month’s sales fell harder in the higher price ranges: The number of $500,000-plus homes sold dropped 25.4 percent month-to-month and 19.2 percent year-over-year.
“There’s certainly a lot more discretionary buying in the higher price ranges,” said John Walsh, DataQuick president. “A lot of those buyers have the option to just take it or leave it and, lately, it looks like more have been leaving it. There was a lot of uncertainty out there over the economy, home prices and the nation’s future. And that was before the stock market turbulence hit in early August.”
– DQNews: Bay Area Housing Market Takes a Breather
“Home buying will be conservative in the months ahead until we get a sense of which direction this economy is heading,” said Robert Dye, chief economist at Comerica Inc. in Dallas, who forecast a decline for July. “No one wants to buy into a soft housing market. We’ve seen prices remain soft in many areas.”
– Existing home sales unexpectedly dropped in July – Alex Kowalski, Bloomberg News
As always, I’m available if you want to talk about the market, or explore your options for buying, selling or investing in East Bay real estate. You can reach me directly at 510.333.4460.
You can download an entire copy of Glen’s East Bay Housing Numbers Through August 2011 here.
East Bay Housing Data – Glen’s Numbers through July 2011
With confidence buckling and all the economic distractions we’re now witnessing, keeping pace with our local market statistics has taken somewhat of a backseat. My apologies for such a late post.
Following our round table discussion at our last Better Homes & Gardens agent weekly meeting, I came from it with the distinct impression that we’re now seeing many buyers fall into two camps:
1) Backing off and going on the fence again given all of the uncertainty.
2) Seeing the opportunity that exists. The bargain hunters are out and they’re feeding on the available low interest rates, having more homes available to pick from, and with less competition.
The July numbers
•For the third month in a row we’ve seen a slight decrease in inventory, a 6.2% drop since the end of April. This isn’t typical because we’re usually picking up steam this time of year. We saw nearly a 25.9% increase last year during the same period.
•The months supply for the combined 38 city area that I track is now 3.2 months.
• Our Pending/Active Ratio has increased slightly to 1.01, slowly returning towards a “normal” market range. Again, keep in mind that this number is overstated due to the large number of short sales that remain in pending status for longer periods than normal.
• Distressed properties, (REOs and Short Sales), are still a large part of our local markets. Although this is slowly becoming less of a factor with listings. 46% of the active listings, 73% of our pending sales (primarily due to the large number of short sales – 56%), and 50% of the sales over the last 4 months are distressed properties.
Other Recent News
Homebuyers have mixed reactions to market swings - Eve Mitchell, Contra Costa Times
“The past two weeks have certainly been a test for the Bay Area housing market. Wild stock swings, the credit downgrade and continuing concerns about the economy have certainly weighed on buyers, sellers and their agents.”
Mortgage rates fall to 30-year near record low -Derek Kravitz, Associated Press
“Fixed mortgage rates fell to at or near record lows. That’s good news for the few who can afford to buy a home or are able to refinance. But the rates have done little to lift the ailing housing market.”
“Many people can’t take advantage of the low mortgage rates. Banks are insisting on higher credit scores and larger down payments from applicants. Others have too little equity invested in their homes to qualify for loans.”
As always, I’m available if you want to talk about the market, or explore your options for buying, selling or investing in East Bay real estate. You can reach me directly at 510.333.4460.
You can download an entire copy of Glen’s East Bay Housing Numbers Through July 2011 here.
East Bay Housing Data – Glen’s Numbers through June 2011
The latest East Bay Housing numbers are in and for the second month in a row we’ve seen a slight decrease in inventory, 4.6% since the end of April. This isn’t typical because we’re usually picking up steam this time of year. We saw nearly a 14% increase last year. The months supply for the combined 38 city area that I track is now 3.3 months.
Our Pending/Active Ratio has increased slightly to .99, slowly returning towards a “normal” market range. Again, keep in mind that this number is overstated due to the large number of short sales that remain in pending status for longer periods than normal.
Distressed properties, (REOs and Short Sales), are still a large part of our local markets. Although this is slowly becoming less of a factor with listings. 45% of the active listings, 68% of our pending sales and 52% of the sales over the last 4 months are distressed properties.
Other Recent Housing News
A MacroMarkets survey of over 100 economists, investment strategists, and housing market analysts regarding their 5-year expectations for future home prices in the United States showed that…
“A significant majority of our panelists believe that the bottom for home prices arrived in the first quarter or will arrive sometime before year-end (2011). Despite persistent macroeconomic uncertainty and unprecedented housing market dysfunction, almost two-thirds of the panelists see the U.S. residential real estate market as at an historic turning point,” Robert Shiller said in a statement.
Price Expectations Survey, compiled from 108 responses of a diverse group of economists, real estate. “69 panelists who are currently forecasting a 2011 turning point predict less than two percent average annual growth in nominal home prices over the five-year period ending December 2015.”
If we really are close to a true bottom in home prices, that this combined with the continued low interest rates makes for a favorable buying environment.
From Reality Check: It’s a homebuyer’s market
“You’re seeing more and more markets across the country right now where the cost to acquire and own property financially simply makes more sense than renting,” says Budge Huskey, president and chief operating officer of Coldwell Banker Real Estate.
Huskey says buyers need to focus on their local market conditions instead of reacting to what they read about nationally.
We know there is a pent up demand from buyers simply looking for the right time, he says: “They’re trying to time what they consider to be the bottom of the market, which we know is almost impossible to do.”
If you’re looking to buy do your homework, consult a banker, and look only at homes you can comfortably afford. If it’s your first, remember it doesn’t need to be your dream home. Buying a starter, building equity, and trading up remains a good strategy.
As always, I’m available if you want to talk about the market, or explore your options for buying, selling or investing in East Bay real estate. You can reach me directly at 510.333.4460.
You can download an entire copy of Glen’s East Bay Housing Numbers Through June 2011 here.
East Bay Housing Data – Glen’s Numbers through May 2011
The latest East Bay Housing Numbers are in, and surprisingly we saw a slight drop (1.7%) in overall inventory. This is the first reduction in the number of homes listed for sale since November of 2010 and slightly surprising considering that we’re entering peak summer home buying season.
Distressed properties, (REOs and Short Sales), are still a large part of our local markets. Although this is slowly becoming less of a factor with listings. 47% of the active listings, 70% of our pending sales and 56% of the sales over the last 4 months are distressed properties.
The Pending/Active Ratio, which we use to gauge general market strength, has increased slightly to .97. Trending to towards a balanced market (1.00). Keep in mind that there are a large number of short sales that remain in pending status for longer periods than normal, this keeps the pending count higher, and in turn skews the ratio to the upside. With that in mind, we would consider East Bay Housing to be in a slight buyer’s market.
Recent News
For all of those following the recent stories circulating about the latest Case-Shiller findings on the housing market, showing a nationwide double dip in housing prices, but I believe the news from Altos research may be closer to the truth.
Many experts have been predicting a U-Shaped recovery. Last year we saw a false bottom. Now, we hear that we might be in a Catfish Recovery.
A Catfish Recovery?
“[Altos Research VP Scott] Sambucci laid it out by describing the catfish as a bottom dweller that moves slowly, feeding off the lake or river floor for a while, then heads up to the surface and back down, bobbing up and down without a distinct pattern or clear direction.”
“Altos says markets should plan for prices over the long term to hit a bottom, rise a bit, sink back down, rise again.”
- via Double Dip: Altos Says Prices Have Been Steadily Rising Since Then
Yes, we’ve been saying for several months now that we were seeing further reductions in values for the SF Bay Area. However, we have been seeing different scenarios depending on what area you focused on and at what price level, once again proving that the real story is being told at the micro-market level.
As always, I’m available if you want to talk about the market, or explore your options for buying, selling or investing in East Bay real estate. You can reach me directly at 510.333.4460.
You can download an entire copy of Glen’s East Bay Housing Numbers Through May 2011 here.
If you’re looking for more news throughout the month, check out the MyEastBayAgent Twitter feed for the latest links.
Looking Closer into the East Bay REO & Short Sale Market
When I was compiling my latest set of East Bay Housing Numbers, I decided to take a closer look at the distressed property market and chart the sales since the beginning of 2007.
The graphs consist of all sales on a month by month basis for both Contra Costa and Alameda Counties. It also shows what portion of sales were distressed property (both REO and Short Sales) since the beginning of 2007 to current April 2011 numbers.
The influence of distressed properties reached their peak during the first quarter of 2009, consisting of 72% to 76% of all sales in Alameda County, and 81% to 83% of all sales in Contra Costa County.
While the number of REO sales has since declined to its current levels, (48% in Contra Costa County and 55% in Alameda County), the number of short sales have gradually increased, now almost as much of a factor on sales as REOs.
East Bay Housing Data – Glen’s Numbers through April 2011
The latest East Bay Housing Numbers are in, and again we’re seeing a slight increase in both inventory levels and in pendings compared to March. Inventory is up 11.4% and pendings are up 20.7% since the beginning of the year.
The months supply is now 3.5 months, above the 3.1 months at the beginning of the year and well above the 2.6 month supply we saw last year at this time.
Our Pending/Active Ratio has increased slightly to .92, slowly returning towards a “normal” market.
Distressed properties, (REOs and Short Sales), are still a large part of our local markets making up 60% of the active listings, 77% of our pending sales and 49% of the sales over the last 4 months.
As always, I’m available if you want to talk about the market, or explore your options for buying, selling or investing in East Bay real estate. You can reach me directly at 510.333.4460.
You can download an entire copy of Glen’s East Bay Housing Numbers Through April 2011 here.
Other News from Around the Web
“Housing Values: The Perfect Storm,” 4/26/2011 – DSNews
“With all the news of still-declining home prices, most buyers are keeping their feet firmly planted on the sidelines unless they’re sure they’re getting a bargain.” – Carrie Bay
Sales up, Prices Down for Bay Area Housing Market, April 14, 2011 – DQNews
“Bay Area home sales last month logged the best March in four years, barely, as prices slipped back a notch. A variety of indicators – including investor and cash purchase levels and adjustable-rate loan use – pointed toward a more normal market, though suggested that it’s still a ways off, a real estate information service reported. “
“The housing market has certainly moved well back from the abyss of two years ago, but there is quite a ways to go before it’s even remotely normal. The Bay Area has much less of a foreclosure problem than the rest of the state, but by its own standards it’s still a sizeable problem that acts as a drag on prices. The big issue continues to be mortgage financing, which is still problematic for many potential borrowers,” said John Walsh, DataQuick president.
“California Mortgage Defaults Drop Again; Foreclosures up,” April 19, 2011 – DQNews
California’s priciest zip codes collectively saw mortgage defaults buck the market-wide trend again and rise slightly quarter-to-quarter, while their defaults fell less on a year-over-year basis than in the overall market. The state’s 80 zip codes with median sale prices of $800,000 or more last quarter posted a 5.8 percent quarter-to-quarter increase in default notices and a 4.7 percent year-over-year decline.
At the other end of the price spectrum, zips with medians below $200,000 saw first-quarter defaults drop 5.5 percent from the prior quarter and drop 17.7 percent from a year ago.
If you’re looking for more news throughout the month, check out the MyEastBayAgent Twitter feed for the latest links.
Berkeley REO Market Update
Looking to buy a Berkeley Foreclosure?
We specialize in Bank Owned foreclosures (REOs). If you’re looking to buy one, below are links to the active REOs currently on the market in Berkeley. If you want more details on a certain one, you can click the address & it will take you to the detailed listing page for that property.
This week, we had a buyer client ask about the listing at 1225 Dwight Way. We checked it out and shot a video walkthrough to send to him. It turns out that it needs too much work & it’s not for him, but we’re happy to provide this service to our active clients… so if you’re serious about buying, get in touch with us via the contact form at the bottom of this post & we can do the same for you.
Showing properties
1 - 10 of 12.
See more Berkeley REO.
(all data current as of
5/17/2012)
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$429,900 : 1612 ALCATRAZ AVE, BERKELEY4 beds, 2 full, 1 part baths
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$338,250 : 2482 MARTIN LUTHER KING JR WAY, BERKELEY1 bed, 1 full bath
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$449,900 : 2310 CURTIS ST, BERKELEY2 beds, 2 full baths
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$589,000 : 1439 CARLETON ST, BERKELEY0 beds, 0 baths
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$489,900 : 1810 WARD STREET, BERKELEY0 beds, 0 baths
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$589,900 : 1511 JULIA ST, BERKELEY0 beds, 0 baths
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$364,500 : 1208 KAINS AVE, BERKELEY2 beds, 1 full bath
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$274,000 : 1419 Ashby Ave., Unit: D, BERKELEY2 beds, 2 full baths
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$274,000 : 1419 Ashby Ave., Unit: C, BERKELEY2 beds, 2 full baths
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$294,000 : 1419 Ashby Ave., Unit: A, BERKELEY2 beds, 2 full baths
Listing information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Read full disclaimer.
Real Estate Investors are Now Officially the Good Guys
From Home Rentership Society – Realty Check with Diana Olick
All-cash investors are flooding the market, buying up distressed properties at deep discounts. [Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, Shaun] Donovan claims investors are no longer the pariah’s of the housing market; they are in fact the bulk of today’s buyers of distressed properties. At the height of the housing crash, President Obama made clear that the housing/mortgage bailout was not for investors, who bought properties with money they didn’t have, but only for owner-occupants (who also, by the way, bought properties with money they didn’t have).
The tides have turned.
“Clearly investors coming in to buy some of these homes is a key part of how these neighborhoods recover,” Donovan says. “We’re focused on, for example with REO [bank-owned] homes, investors to purchase them and get the financing they need to fix them up.”
Real Estate investors will play a key role in the eventual recovery of the real estate market. Any way you look at it, there’s a backlog of distressed properties that we’re going to deal with before we can return to a more normalized real estate market. Investors are waiting to purchase these properties, improve them and sell their end product to happy new homeowners paying full market value, which in turn will help their communities re-establish their value.
We’re excited to be a part of this recovery and we’d love to have you join us.
5 of Berkeley’s Best Make the Top 100 Bay Area Restaurants List
San Francisco Chronicle’s “Top 100 Bay Area Restaurants” came out the beginning of April with Michael Bauer, Chronicle Restaurant Critic, beginning his annual publication by stating; “2010 should go down as the most exciting year of Bay Area dining in more than a quarter century.”
Five of Berkeley’s finest make the cut.
Chez Panisse, as always, the Alice Waters Influence.
Corso Trattoria & Rivoli, the Wendy Brucker & Roscoe Skipper Team, both absolutely favorites of mine.
and finally Japanese Cusines; O Chame on Fourth Street and the newest member Ippuku in downtown Berkeley.
Check it out online. Did any of your favorites make the list?
Equal Housing Opportunity. Equal Opportunity Employer.
©2012 Bay East. ©2012 CCAR. ©2012 EBRD. All rights reserved. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. This information is provided from three separate sources: Bay East, CCAR and EBRD. The listings presented here may or may not be listed by the Broker/Agent operating this website. Information last updated on 5/17/12 3:24 AM PDT.