East Bay Housing Data – Glen’s Numbers through June 2011

The latest East Bay Housing numbers are in and for the second month in a row we’ve seen a slight decrease in inventory, 4.6% since the end of April. This isn’t typical because we’re usually picking up steam this time of year. We saw nearly a 14% increase last year. The months supply for the combined 38 city area that I track is now 3.3 months.

Our Pending/Active Ratio has increased slightly to .99, slowly returning towards a “normal” market range. Again, keep in mind that this number is overstated due to the large number of short sales that remain in pending status for longer periods than normal.

Distressed properties, (REOs and Short Sales), are still a large part of our local markets. Although this is slowly becoming less of a factor with listings. 45% of the active listings, 68% of our pending sales and 52% of the sales over the last 4 months are distressed properties.

Other Recent Housing News

A MacroMarkets survey of over 100 economists, investment strategists, and housing market analysts regarding their 5-year expectations for future home prices in the United States showed that…

“A significant majority of our panelists believe that the bottom for home prices arrived in the first quarter or will arrive sometime before year-end (2011). Despite persistent macroeconomic uncertainty and unprecedented housing market dysfunction, almost two-thirds of the panelists see the U.S. residential real estate market as at an historic turning point,” Robert Shiller said in a statement.

Price Expectations Survey, compiled from 108 responses of a diverse group of economists, real estate. “69 panelists who are currently forecasting a 2011 turning point predict less than two percent average annual growth in nominal home prices over the five-year period ending December 2015.”

If we really are close to a true bottom in home prices, that this combined with the continued low interest rates makes for a favorable buying environment.

From Reality Check: It’s a homebuyer’s market

“You’re seeing more and more markets across the country right now where the cost to acquire and own property financially simply makes more sense than renting,” says Budge Huskey, president and chief operating officer of Coldwell Banker Real Estate.

Huskey says buyers need to focus on their local market conditions instead of reacting to what they read about nationally.

We know there is a pent up demand from buyers simply looking for the right time, he says: “They’re trying to time what they consider to be the bottom of the market, which we know is almost impossible to do.”

If you’re looking to buy do your homework, consult a banker, and look only at homes you can comfortably afford. If it’s your first, remember it doesn’t need to be your dream home. Buying a starter, building equity, and trading up remains a good strategy.

As always, I’m available if you want to talk about the market, or explore your options for buying, selling or investing in East Bay real estate. You can reach me directly at 510.333.4460.

You can download an entire copy of Glen’s East Bay Housing Numbers Through June 2011 here.

East Bay Housing Data – Glen’s Numbers through May 2011

The latest East Bay Housing Numbers are in, and surprisingly we saw a slight drop (1.7%) in overall inventory. This is the first reduction in the number of homes listed for sale since November of 2010 and slightly surprising considering that we’re entering peak summer home buying season.

Distressed properties, (REOs and Short Sales), are still a large part of our local markets. Although this is slowly becoming less of a factor with listings. 47% of the active listings, 70% of our pending sales and 56% of the sales over the last 4 months are distressed properties.

The Pending/Active Ratio, which we use to gauge general market strength, has increased slightly to .97. Trending to towards a balanced market (1.00). Keep in mind that there are a large number of short sales that remain in pending status for longer periods than normal, this keeps the pending count higher, and in turn skews the ratio to the upside.  With that in mind, we would consider East Bay Housing to be in a slight buyer’s market.

Recent News

For all of those following the recent stories circulating about the latest Case-Shiller findings on the housing market, showing a nationwide double dip in housing prices, but I believe the news from Altos research may be closer to the truth.

Many experts have been predicting a U-Shaped recovery. Last year we saw a false bottom. Now, we hear that we might be in a Catfish Recovery.

A Catfish Recovery?

“[Altos Research VP Scott] Sambucci laid it out by describing the catfish as a bottom dweller that moves slowly, feeding off the lake or river floor for a while, then heads up to the surface and back down, bobbing up and down without a distinct pattern or clear direction.”

“Altos says markets should plan for prices over the long term to hit a bottom, rise a bit, sink back down, rise again.”

- via Double Dip: Altos Says Prices Have Been Steadily Rising Since Then

Yes, we’ve been saying for several months now that we were seeing further reductions in values for the SF Bay Area. However, we have been seeing different scenarios depending on what area you focused on and at what price level, once again proving that the real story is being told at the micro-market level.

As always, I’m available if you want to talk about the market, or explore your options for buying, selling or investing in East Bay real estate. You can reach me directly at 510.333.4460.

You can download an entire copy of Glen’s East Bay Housing Numbers Through May 2011 here.

If you’re looking for more news throughout the month, check out the MyEastBayAgent Twitter feed for the latest links.

Looking Closer into the East Bay REO & Short Sale Market

When I was compiling my latest set of East Bay Housing Numbers, I decided to take a closer look at the distressed property market and chart the sales since the beginning of 2007.

The graphs consist of all sales on a month by month basis for both Contra Costa and Alameda Counties. It also shows what portion of sales were distressed property (both REO and Short Sales) since the beginning of 2007 to current April 2011 numbers.

The influence of distressed properties reached their peak during the first quarter of 2009, consisting of 72% to 76% of all sales in Alameda County, and 81% to 83% of all sales in Contra Costa County.

While the number of REO sales has since declined to its current levels, (48% in Contra Costa County and 55% in Alameda County), the number of short sales have gradually increased, now almost as much of a factor on sales as REOs.

Great Times at Yoshi’s Jazz Club in Oakland’s Jack London Square

I like to think of myself as an avid jazz enthusiast and Yoshi’s Jazz Club in Oakland has, over the years, become my favorite venue. I became a “regular” while attending shows beginning at the “hideaway jazz club” on Claremont and on to their current location at Jack London Square. It seems like just about every major jazz artist has played here.

“Yoshi’s is one of the best jazz clubs in the world,” says Kenny Burrell, the guitar master who celebrated his 75th birthday with a special concert at the club last summer. “They have the best sound system, the best equipment, and they take extra effort to present the music to the public in the best possible way.” – The Spot for Jazz

Leading the way, Shelley Altura, organized our group from Better Homes & Gardens to attend Friday night’s show featuring Stanley Clarke and of course with her very own son Charles Altura, masterfully playing the guitar.

I loved Stanley on the acoustic bass, but as expected, he stepped it up on the electric sharing the stage with his younger group of musicians and coaxing the very best out of them together and on solos with great upbeat energy. What great chemistry and it really does sound like he’s been playing for ever with drummer Ronald Bruner Jr, who along with Charles played on Stanley’s recent 2010 Grammy winning CD for best contemporary jazz album.

Their first set was so good that I stayed on for the second set, one that I believe I enjoyed even more than the first. Great stuff, great venue, great group!!!