East Bay Housing Data – Glen’s Numbers through November 2011
Welcome to the latest edition of my East Bay Housing numbers. For the past few years, I’ve been compiling East Bay housing data directly from MLS data and publishing it for everyone to view.
- For the 7th month in a row we’ve seen another slight decrease in inventory, a 30% drop since the end of April. The last time we’ve seen inventory levels this low was in February 2010.
- The months supply for the combined 38 city area that I track is now 2.3 months, below normal and again reaching lows we haven’t seen since February 2010.
- Our Pending/Active Ratio has increased again to 1.33, normally considered in a seller’s market range. Keep in mind that this number is overstated due to the large number of short sales that remain in pending status for longer periods than normal.
- Distressed properties, (REOs and Short Sales), are still a large part of our local markets. 50% of the active listings, 75% of our pending sales (primarily due to the large number of short sales – 58%), and 51% of the sales over the last 4 months are distressed properties.
Other Recent News
Housing Market Sees Signs of Stability: Clear Capital
The housing market may be stabilizing as house prices and REO saturation rates show little change on a quarterly and yearly basis, according to Clear Capital’s most recent Home Data Index.
NAR publishes forecasts each month based on the inflow of updated economic data. Here are the latest take-aways regarding the outlook for next year:
- No economic recession in sight. The GDP is expected to rise 2.5 percent in 2012. That is, the income of everyone combined in the U.S. will rise by 2.5 percent.
- The net job creation is expected to be 1.5 to 2 million. The national unemployment rate will slide to 8.4 percent by this time next year.
- The baseline forecast for existing home sales is a rise of 5 percent, while home prices will finally turn positive, albeit by only 2 percent. The total industry commission revenue, therefore, can be expected to rise by around 7 percent.
- New home sales will rise by 16 percent. A stronger comeback is in the cards, after brutal declines during the housing bust years.
Bay Area Home Sales Up From 2010, Prices Down
“We’ve been watching the real estate market take itty bitty baby steps in the direction of normalcy, but that trend paused last month. ARM and jumbo loan usage went back down, cash and investor sales went back up as a portion of the market. This may well be a short-term pause while the market recalibrates changes in loan thresholds. We’ll know more in a few months,” said John Walsh, DataQuick president.
C.A.R. October sales and price report
“While October’s sales were on track with expectations, the month-to-month drop in the median price was larger than usual for this time of year,” said C.A.R. Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young. “Because of the lower Fannie, Freddie, and FHA conforming loan limits, some buyers purchased less expensive homes so that their mortgages would meet the criteria for the lower limit, while others were unable to qualify for nonconforming loans that typically have higher down payment requirements and higher mortgage rates. The resulting change in the mix of sales drove down October’s median price.”
As always, I’m available if you want to talk about the market, or explore your options for buying, selling or investing in East Bay real estate. You can reach me directly at 510.333.4460.
You can download an entire copy of Glen’s Numbers through November 2011 here.
East Bay Housing Data – Glen’s Numbers through September 2011
The latest East Bay housing numbers are in & for the fifth month in a row we’ve seen another slight decrease in inventory, a 12.5% drop since the end of April. This isn’t typical because we’re usually just starting to back off about this time of year. We saw nearly a 38.4% increase last year during the same period.
The months supply for the combined 38 city area that I track is now 2.9 months, slightly below normal.
Our Pending/Active Ratio has increased again slightly to 1.08, again slowly returning towards a “normal” market range. Keep in mind that this number is overstated due to the large number of short sales that remain in pending status for longer periods than normal.
Distressed properties, (REOs and Short Sales), are still a large part of our local markets. Although this is slowly becoming less of a factor with listings. 47% of the active listings, 74% of our pending sales (primarily due to the large number of short sales – 57%), and 49% of the sales over the last 4 months are distressed properties.
Other Recent News
Here are a few points that stood out to me from C.A.R.’s California Housing Market Forecast for 2012
Good fundamentals, but still dependent on the consumer & jobs.
“Despite the run of unforeseen global events in the first half of this year that slowed the overall economy, 2011 home sales are projected to essentially remain unchanged from last year,” said C.A.R. President Beth L. Peerce. “Looking ahead, the fundamentals of the housing market – such as low mortgage rates, high housing affordability, and favorable home prices – are expected to continue, but at this point, a strong housing recovery will depend on consumer confidence, job creation, and the availability and cost of home loans.”
Improved mix.
“Discretionary sellers will play a larger role in next year’s housing market,” said Peerce. “Those who held off selling in 2011 may list their homes in 2012, thereby improving the mix of homes for sale compared with the last few years. Additionally, distressed sales will remain an important segment of the overall market as lenders continue to work through the foreclosure process.”
Another transition year.
“2012 will be another transition year for the California housing market, as the continued uncertainty about the U.S. financial system, job growth, and the stability of the overall economy remain in the forefront for all market participants,” said C.A.R. Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young. “An improvement in job growth, consumer spending, and corresponding gains in housing are essential to a broader recovery in the economy, but would-be buyers will remain cautious as they weigh these myriad uncertainties against the clear opportunities presented by today’s very affordable housing market.
As always, I’m available if you want to talk about the market, or explore your options for buying, selling or investing in East Bay real estate. You can reach me directly at 510.333.4460.
You can download an entire copy of Glen’s East Bay Housing Numbers Through September 2011 here.
East Bay Housing Data – Glen’s Numbers through July 2011
With confidence buckling and all the economic distractions we’re now witnessing, keeping pace with our local market statistics has taken somewhat of a backseat. My apologies for such a late post.
Following our round table discussion at our last Better Homes & Gardens agent weekly meeting, I came from it with the distinct impression that we’re now seeing many buyers fall into two camps:
1) Backing off and going on the fence again given all of the uncertainty.
2) Seeing the opportunity that exists. The bargain hunters are out and they’re feeding on the available low interest rates, having more homes available to pick from, and with less competition.
The July numbers
•For the third month in a row we’ve seen a slight decrease in inventory, a 6.2% drop since the end of April. This isn’t typical because we’re usually picking up steam this time of year. We saw nearly a 25.9% increase last year during the same period.
•The months supply for the combined 38 city area that I track is now 3.2 months.
• Our Pending/Active Ratio has increased slightly to 1.01, slowly returning towards a “normal” market range. Again, keep in mind that this number is overstated due to the large number of short sales that remain in pending status for longer periods than normal.
• Distressed properties, (REOs and Short Sales), are still a large part of our local markets. Although this is slowly becoming less of a factor with listings. 46% of the active listings, 73% of our pending sales (primarily due to the large number of short sales – 56%), and 50% of the sales over the last 4 months are distressed properties.
Other Recent News
Homebuyers have mixed reactions to market swings - Eve Mitchell, Contra Costa Times
“The past two weeks have certainly been a test for the Bay Area housing market. Wild stock swings, the credit downgrade and continuing concerns about the economy have certainly weighed on buyers, sellers and their agents.”
Mortgage rates fall to 30-year near record low -Derek Kravitz, Associated Press
“Fixed mortgage rates fell to at or near record lows. That’s good news for the few who can afford to buy a home or are able to refinance. But the rates have done little to lift the ailing housing market.”
“Many people can’t take advantage of the low mortgage rates. Banks are insisting on higher credit scores and larger down payments from applicants. Others have too little equity invested in their homes to qualify for loans.”
As always, I’m available if you want to talk about the market, or explore your options for buying, selling or investing in East Bay real estate. You can reach me directly at 510.333.4460.
You can download an entire copy of Glen’s East Bay Housing Numbers Through July 2011 here.
If You're Keeping Up With the Latest Foreclosure News, You'll Want to Check These Posts Out
Here’s a double dose of foreclosure related info from the folks at ForeclosureRadar which I thought you’d find useful.
First off, COO Mark C. Skilling fills us in on “What’s new in Sacramento? (SB 1178 / SB 1275 / AB 1639)”. Looks like some more foreclosure related legislation is headed our way, including:
- Extending borrowers protections from personal liability purchase money loans that have been refinanced (SB 1178)
- Delaying the start of the foreclosure process until after final determination of a loan modification request (SB 1275)
- Providing a way for borrows to be compensated if their home is sold at auction by the lender’s mistake (SB 1275)
- Delaying the start of the foreclosure process until the completion of mediation between the borrow and lender (AB 1639)
For a full breakdown, check out the entire post where he breaks the bills down in detail.
Also worth checking out is founder & CEO Sean O’Toole’s powerpoint deck from his recent talk at SJREI ‘”Foreclosures: Market Update & Opportunities” which does an excellent job of breaking down where we are, how we got here and gives his take on where we’re headed and where the opportunities are. I’ve included screen shots of a couple of slides below and definitely recommend downloading & checking out the deck.
Glen’s East Bay Housing Numbers (through May 2010)
The May edition of Glen’s East Bay Housing Numbers show that housing inventories continued to climb at an unusually fast pace, up 64% since the beginning of the year. Since January 1st the month’s supply has increased from 1.7 months to 2.8 months while the pending over active ratio dropped from 1.66 to 1.18.
When comparing these numbers to May of 2009, we’re able to put this in a better perspective.
Last year’s May numbers are similar to this year’s as follows:
1) Active Listings (Homes for sale) are roughly within 2% of last year’s numbers.
2) Pending Sales (Homes in contract) are within 5% of last year’s numbers.
3) We now have a 2.8 month supply, the same as last year.
4) The Pending over active ratio was 1.15 last year, now 1.18.
Although it’s typical to see a swing up in homes coming onto the market from December to May, we haven’t seen an increase of this size so quickly since I have been tracking these numbers (2005).
I think the real question to ask here is not why are we seeing such a huge increase but why were December’s numbers so low?
Government programs and concerns over bank financial statements were an influence. REOs continued to dominate sales while few were coming on to replenish the market. As an REO agent, dealing in foreclosed properties, our assignments dropped off dramatically beginning last fall. Other REO agents confirmed similar circumstances. This is also consistent with what many media sources have indicated.
A comparison over a four month period, between this year and last year, shows a dramatic drop in REO sales. 32% of the sales over the last 4 months have been REOs. For the same four month period last year, 63% of sales were REOs.
This year’s increase was not dominated by distressed properties coming onto the market. Active listings, pending sales, and sales over the last 4 months are all down by about 5% compared to what they were at the beginning of the year.
From what we’re hearing, this may change in the coming months. Foreclosure activity has increased over the last few weeks and we, as well as other agents, are beginning to see new assignments.
All indications are that distressed properties will continue to be a factor for several years.
Foreclosed homeowners could still owe; Existing-Home Sales Improve; Loan Mods Often Damage Credit Scores
In hopes of trying to balance my output with my input, I’m going to start summarizing what’s in some of my open tabs in my browser and sharing them with you. That way we can all be smarter 
/via Sacramento Business Journal: Foreclosed homeowners could owe ‘tens thousands of dollars’ to lenders.
You may not know it, but if you’ve refinanced from your original purchase loan and lose your home to foreclosure, you may be on the hook for the difference between the amount owed & the property’s value.
For example, if a homeowner has $200,000 outsanding for a refinanced mortgage and the lender forecloses on the house with the property valued at $150,000, the former homeowner could be liable for the remaining $50,000.
Senate Bill 1178 is trying to close that loophole.
/via REALTOR.org: Existing-Home Sales Continue to Improve in April
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the gain was widely anticipated. “The upswing in April existing-home sales was expected because of the tax credit inducement, and no doubt there will be some temporary fallback in the months immediately after it expires, but other factors also are supporting the market,” he said. “For people who were on the sidelines, there’s been a return of buyer confidence with stabilizing home prices, an improving economy and mortgage interest rates that remain historically low.”
/via SF Gate: Loan modifications often damage credit scores
Lots of good info in this article from Carolyn Said, but if you’re looking into a possible loan modification, there’s a list of tips in the article that you should be aware of…
- If you’re requesting a loan modification, here are some steps you can take to try to protect your credit:
- Try to stay current on payments while requesting a trial modification.
- Try to get a loan mod under the federal Home Affordable Modification Plan (HAMP), which has less impact on credit.
- Request that the lender not report your trial loan payments as partial payments.
- Make your trial payments on time.
- Homeowners who believe that servicers are not treating them fairly or complying with program guidelines can contact the HOPE Hotline at (888) 995-4673.
Keeping an Eye on the Resetting ARMs, the Bay Area Housing Market’s Ticking Time Bomb
The folks over at SNL published a new ARM reset chart from Credit Suisse & if you’re interested in what’s in store for the Bay Area housing market, you’re going to want to keep an eye on this.
Thankfully, due to the low interest rate environment that we’re currently in, it seems as if we’ve been granted a temporary reprieve from a wave of potential defaults stemming from dramatic increases in monthly payments. In fact, many borrowers with ARMs could actually see their payments decrease.
So does this mean we’re out of the woods? …Not exactly.
1. Rates are still at historic lows and are bound to rise sooner or later.
2. Property values have fallen dramatically since the peak years and many borrowers looking to refinance won’t be able to due to fact that their properties won’t appraise.
This is something that we’re going to have to deal with before the local housing market can recover.
For more analysis, I recommend checking out: Calculated Risk: New Credit Suisse ARM Recast Chart
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