Glen's Numbers Gets a Mention in the SF Chronicle
I send copies of Glen’s Numbers, the local real estate stats that I compile each month to key individuals within the San Francisco Bay Area Real Estate Industry, including Carolyn Said of the San Francisco Chronicle.
I was quoted in her latest article, “Market Stabilizes, but Volatility Lurks” published in the Business Section of last Sunday’s newspaper.
After a period where it seemed that steep discounts were the only way to sell a home, real estate agents say they’re seeing signs of a sellers’ market as low interest rates, a home buyers tax credit, and increased affordability bring buyers out of the woodwork.
“It’s simple,” said Glen Bell of Keller Williams Realty in the East Bay. “You’ve got less inventory and a lot more buyers. We’re getting multiple offers because there are lots of buyers competing for fewer properties.”
Bell tracks home statistics in 38 cities in Alameda and Contra Costa counties. At year end, those towns collectively had 1.7 months’ worth of inventory, compared with 5.9 months’ worth in late 2008. Oakland, for instance, had 1.8 months of inventory at year end compared with 7.8 months a year earlier. Richmond had 1.4 months compared to 8.7 months.
While a year ago, foreclosure sales dominated, banks now are selling far fewer repossessed homes. That causes both tighter inventory and higher median prices, because foreclosures tend to be at bargain prices.
“There is a big backlog of delinquencies,” Bell said. “For nine months, we’ve kept hearing that we’ll see more (foreclosures) on the market, but we’ve just seen a trickle.”
Of course, if you’re a regular reader, or on the MEBA list you’d probably already know that… but it’s always nice to see your name in print.
Good Housing News from NAR & RealtyTrac, but is a Slowdown on the Horizon
The NAR released their 4th Quarter Housing Statistics today and showed increased sales & year over year price gains in many metro areas.
Lawrence Yun , NAR chief economist, said the first-time home buyer tax credit was the dominant factor. “The surge in home sales was driven by buyers responding strongly to the tax credit combined with record low mortgage interest rates,” he said. “With inventory levels trending down over the past 18 months, we expect broadly balanced housing market conditions in much of the country by late spring with more areas showing higher prices.”
Existing-home sales in the West jumped 16.2 percent in the fourth quarter to an annual rate of 1.38 million and are 18.2 percent above a year ago. The median existing single-family home price in the West was $227,200 in the fourth quarter, which is 8.9 percent below the fourth quarter of 2008, but with many areas showing notable gains.
“Markets in the West such as San Francisco, San Jose and Denver are showing double-digit price increases, and other markets like San Diego and Anaheim have begun to firm up,” Yun said.
In other good news, RealtyTrac’s January 2010 Foreclosure report shows a 10% decline in foreclosure activity nationwide.
“January foreclosure numbers are exhibiting a pattern very similar to a year ago: a double-digit percentage jump in December foreclosure activity followed by a 10 percent drop in January,” said James J. Saccacio, chief executive officer of RealtyTrac “If history repeats itself we will see a surge in the numbers over the next few months as lenders foreclose on delinquent loans where neither the existing loan modification programs or the new short sale and deed-in-lieu of foreclosure alternatives works.”
While the news is good, I’m guessing it will be temporary as the home buyer tax credit expires, the Fed’s program to buy mortgage backed securities ends & the banks foreclosure activity picks up after a seasonal holiday slowdown.
It’s going to be an interesting spring for the housing market.
One of Real Estate’s 50 Most Influential People Blogs Here
I’m usually not one to talk about myself, but this morning I found out that I was named by Inman News as one of Real Estate’s 50 Most Influential Online: 2009 & I wanted to share the news.
This list of individuals selected for this report includes real estate agents and brokers, technologists, economists, enthusiasts and analysts. They are luminaries in the online world of real estate whose insight and commentary inspires others, provokes debate and incites change.
Wow!
Thanks to the Inman crew for including me & thanks to my partners Glen and Norm for making this all possible. It’s quite the honor to be included in that list.
It’s been a great five years for MEBA so far and I’m looking forward to seeing what we can do in the coming years.
Thanks again.
Glen's November East Bay Housing Numbers
Here’s the latest numbers for the 38 San Francisco Bay Area Cities that I follow. Change from the last month was minimal.
We’ve heard encouraging news from NAR recently referring to the October housing numbers; “Nine Consecutive Gains for Pending Home Sales”
We’ve experienced the same trend in the San Francisco East Bay Area. However, we finally showed a drop in Pending Home Sales for November. I think we can attribute this more to seasonal factors. Inventory levels have come down, as well, but at a faster pace.
The Pending/Active Ratio is at its highest levels since I began tracking numbers in 2005, while Inventory levels are now at their lowest. Depending on where you buy, your choices are limited.
Month Supply is now at 1.8 months for this area, again, very low considering that 6 months is considered normal.
Download a pdf of Glen’s Numbers
Fannie Mae Sends Investor REO Buyers to the Back of the Line
If you’re an investor looking to purchase Fannie Mae REO properties, then their new First Look initiative will be of interest to you.
To provide owner occupants and public entities an advantage in purchasing Fannie Mae-owned foreclosed properties, the company has created the First Look initiative. With First Look, only offers from owner occupants and buyers using public funds are considered during the first 15 days a property is on the market. Offers from investors will be considered only after the first 15 days have passed.
Ready, Set, Wait 15 Days
[Video] UC Berkeley Real Estate Economist Ken Rosen Gives His Take on the Housing Market
UC Berkeley real estate economist Ken Rosen talks about the federal home buyers tax credit and how the next six to nine months are good times to buy a house, if you plan to live in it.
links for 2009-10-29
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The article states the plan might still change .
The details:
# Income eligibility for home buyers increases to $125,000 for individuals and $225,000 for couples.
# The tax credit for first-time home buyers (anyone who has not owned in the last 3 years) will be the lesser of $8,000 or 10% of the purchase price.
# For move-up buyers – "who have lived in their current home for at least five years" – the credit would be limited to $6,500.
# The credit runs from Dec. 1, 2009 to April 30, 2010, with an additional 60 day period to close escrow. (So end of April to sign contract, end of June to close escrow)
links for 2009-10-28
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Rick Sharga tackles the Shadow REO Inventory topic.
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Given the serious possibility that housing prices are currently being propped up by the tax credit — Goldman estimates by 5 percent — we can understand the argument for, at most, a gradual phase-out to smooth out the inevitable downward adjustment. But anything more would be throwing good money after bad.
links for 2009-10-27
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Some people online are trying to flout Dunbar's number, to become connected and actual friends with tens of thousands of people at once. And guess what? It doesn't scale. You might be able to stretch to 200 or 400, but no, you can't effectively engage at a tribal level with a thousand people.
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'Social Business' denotes businesses organized around social ties and the use of social technologies to support them. This is intended to represent a break between companies (in general) organized prior to the rise of the social web.
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The forecast assumes that Congress wont extend a tax credit for first-time home buyers that is due to end Nov. 30. That isnt a foregone conclusion as Congress is still debating that issue.
An end to the tax credit and an expected increase in foreclosed homes available for sale will place additional downward pressure on house prices this winter, First American said.
Glen’s Latest East Bay Housing Numbers
Here’s a snapshot of the San Francisco East Bay Real Estate Market. I run these numbers monthly and have been tracking 38 cities since 2005. The spreadsheet indicates that inventories are still decreasing and are now at their lowest levels since I began this process (May 2005).
DOM (Days on Market) is decreasing, months supply in most areas have reached lows, and the relationship between what, on average, homes are selling for to list price support this. We’re seeing properties in many areas getting multiple offers and actually now, on average, selling at or above the average list price.
Areas that were hit hardest last year due to high inventories and downward pressure on prices due to the high number of distressed properties on the market, are now starting to see some recovery, especially in the lower priced areas. Examples would be in East Contra Costa along highway 4, (Pittsburg, Antioch, Brentwood, even Concord). More recently, in West Contra Costa in the San Pablo, Richmond, Pinole, Hercules areas).
Pendings have increased dramatically. However, this is due in part to longer escrow periods and a larger number of short sale transactions.
Call me if you’d like to chat more in depth about the San Francisco East Bay market.
-Glen 510-333-4460
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