Glen’s East Bay Housing Numbers – Through April 2012

The latest round of East Bay housing numbers are in and surprisingly April’s Numbers saw another decrease in East Bay Inventory. The amount of homes for sale is now at the lowest point since August of 2005.

• Inventory for the East Bay (the 38 cities tracked) is now at its’ lowest level since August of 2005. As of 4/30/2012, there were 3,052 homes listed active for sale. To give you some perspective; the low point since I have been tracking numbers was in July 2005 at 2,607. The high was in July 2007 at 13, 053.
• The month’s supply for the combined 38 city area is now at 1.4 months. Historically, a 4 to 5 months supply is considered normal for this area.
• Our Pending/Active Ratio has climbed to 2.44, again signaling a strong seller’s market. This is the second month in a row that the ratio has been above 2, a first since I began this process. Keep in mind that this number is overstated due to the large number of short sales that remain in pending status for longer periods than normal.
• Distressed properties, (REOs and Short Sales), are still a large part of our local markets but declining somewhat. 37% of the active listings, 70% of our pending sales (primarily due to the large number of short sales – 55%), and 54% of the sales over the last 4 months are distressed properties.

One question that may come to mind is that if inventory is so low, with multiple offers more frequently in all price ranges, why the sales numbers not reflect that.

Shouldn’t we be seeing shorter DOM numbers and shouldn’t the Sales Price % of List Price be higher due to upward pressure on prices? The answer really has to do with the time frames being compared. The Active and Pending numbers are as of the end of April. Sales numbers are being pulled from the previous 4 months with properties that went pending 30 to 60 days prior to that.

The sales numbers are still reflecting what was going on in the market as much as 6 months ago, whereas the Active and Pending numbers are reflecting what is going on in the market right now. The sales numbers will eventually catch up and reflect what we’re seeing now as being a strong seller’s market, but it may take a few months before we actually see and read about it in the newspapers.

Of course one of the many issues this causes is that buyers are now having a difficult time with appraisals. Comps only a few months old may no longer be an accurate representation of value in a market moving upward.

As always, I’m available if you want to talk about the market, or explore your options for buying, selling or investing in East Bay real estate. You can reach me directly at 510.333.4460.

You can download an entire copy of Glens Numbers through April 2012 here.

Other Recent News

Stunned Home Buyers Find the Bidding Wars Are Back – April 27, 2012, Wall Street Journal – Nick Timiraos

Competitive bidding in the current environment isn’t producing huge price increases or leaving sellers with hefty profits, as occurred during the housing boom. Still, the bidding wars caused by tight inventory provide the latest evidence that housing demand is starting to pick up after a six-year-long slump.

“We very much believe we’ve hit bottom,” said Ivy Zelman, chief executive of a research firm, who was among the first to warn of a downturn seven years ago. Earlier this week, she raised her home-price forecast for the year, calling for a 1% annual gain, up from a 1% decline.

Inventory levels in many markets were at the lowest level in years. Nearly 83% of offers that Redfin agents have made on behalf of clients in the San Francisco Bay area this year and 71% in Southern California have had competing bids.

Further Decline in California Foreclosure Activity - April 24, 2012 – DQNews

The number of California homes entering the formal foreclosure process during the first quarter declined to its lowest level in almost five years, the result of a more stable economy and housing market, as well as policies that increasingly favor short sales, a real estate information service reported.

Bay Area Home Sales Continue to Rise. Condo Sales Jump. - April 19, 2012 – DQNews

March home sales in the Bay Area were at their highest level for that month in five years, the result of lower prices, low interest rates and an improving economy. Prices appeared to be leveling off across more of the region and may be poised to start inching back up in the stronger submarkets, a real estate information service reported.

California pending home sales up for third straight month, highest level in nearly three years - April 24, 2012 – C.A.R.

California pending home sales posted higher for the third consecutive month in March, rising from both the previous month and year, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.) reported today. Additionally, the share of distressed sales dropped for the second consecutive month, as equity sales typically increase with the start of the spring home buying season.

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