Glen’s December East Bay Housing Numbers (through November 2010)

This month’s edition of Glen’s East Bay Housing Numbers is in and while sales are down from last year, the market continues to hold stable.

• November was the first month that we have seen a significant decline in inventory since the beginning of the year. 7,226 for the 38 cities tracked in Alameda and Contra Costa County. This is about a 7.5% decrease from the month before. The months supply for the area dropped as well from a 3.9 month supply, a high for the year to, a 3.6 months supply. Typically we see a seasonal drop in inventory this time of year. However, we usually see this trend beginning a couple of months earlier.
• We saw a small decrease for the amount of pending sales at 5,995, (homes that have gone into contract). This is well below the levels we saw in November of last year, 6,750.
• Our Pending/Active Ratio has increased from .78 to .83, an improvement, but still indicating that we are, on the whole, in a “buyer’s market.”
• Sales remain sluggish for Alameda and Contra Costa Counties, down 29% since mid year and down 36% as compared to the previous November in 2009.
• We also saw, across the board, that discounts were greater than the month before. The discount for what homes were selling at in comparison to asking, on average had slightly increased.

What does the future hold for the East Bay housing market? I think jobs are going to be key to any sustained recovery, which means that I’m keeping an eye on the local employment figures and C.A.R. President Beth L. Peerce echos my sentiment.

“Persistent worries about the economy and job security are affecting home sales, despite low mortgage rates and strong affordability” (link)

From most accounts it looks like we’re in for a slow recovery.  The latest UCLA Anderson Forecast is forecasting

“Modest growth and distressingly high unemployment” for most of 2011, with an acceleration of growth late next year that will gradually lower the unemployment rate.”

As always, I’m available if you want to talk about the market, or explore your options for buying, selling or investing in East Bay real estate. You can reach me directly at 510.333.4460.

You can download the entire copy of Glen’s East Bay Housing Numbers through 11.30.10 here.

Additional reading;

DQ News, Bay Area Home Sales Fall Sharply; Median Price Dips Below Last Year

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