Glen’s East Bay Housing Numbers – Through January 2012
February 14, 2012 by Glen Bell · View Comments
Welcome to the New Year!
The beginning of the New Year has a similar look and feel to what we saw at the beginning of 2010. After hitting an inventory low in December for the year 2011, we actually saw a very slight gain in the number of homes for sale in January. This ended an 8 months streak of falling inventory.
Like 2010, with inventories this low, a slight “seller’s market” followed into summer. We’re starting to hear some positives in the market;
- As Clear Capital reported last month, “After years of decline, housing prices are expected to stabilize or even increase in some parts of the Bay Area this year, according to a new forecast.”
- The affordability index in California has reached a previous record high set in 2009.
- The Recent Robo-Signing Settlement.
- Home Affordable Modification Programs and proposed legislation addressing housing.
- Consumer sentiment improving as indicated by a recent Fannie Mae Survey.
- The employment market continues to strengthen
- Record low interest rates.
- Housing starts are still running at only one-third of their 2006 peak, but are up from their 2009-11 lows
Buyers who have remained on the fence due to the uncertainty in our economy are now beginning to slowing trickle back into the market. We’re starting to see some competition in desirable areas that have fewer homes for buyers to look at. This past month has brought us more multiple offer scenarios with pending sales going over asking.
As for the January numbers;
- The month’s supply for the combined 38 city area that I track is still at 1.9 months, again far below normal, and similar to what we saw at the beginning of 2010.
- Inventory typically drops off during the winter months plus we’ve been seeing banks slow down during this same time over the past 3 seasons with self imposed moratoriums during the Holidays.
- Our Pending/Active Ratio remained relatively high at 1.51, normally considered a seller’s market range. Keep in mind that this number is overstated due to the large number of short sales that remain in pending status for longer periods than normal.
- Distressed properties, (REOs and Short Sales), are still a large part of our local markets. 50% of the active listings, 77% of our pending sales (primarily due to the large number of short sales – 60%), and 55% of the sales over the last 4 months are distressed properties.
Other Recent News
DQNews, Summing up the Year – January 18, 2012
The Bay Area’s housing market rounded out 2011 much the way it started it: with constricted and atypical sales activity, lots of bottom feeding, and a largely dormant mid- to move-up market.
“We’ll remember 2011 as much for what didn’t happen as for what did. People put discretionary buying and selling on hold, except at the very top of the market. The spectacular gains in affordability, based on the combination of lower prices and ultra-low interest rates, was largely theoretical for many people because it was so hard to get a mortgage. That, combined with negative equity and economic uncertainty, kept people away,” said John Walsh, DataQuick president.
“Many of the deals that did make their way through the system were in the distressed arena – foreclosures and short sales. Much of it was deeply discounted cash purchases, disproportionately at the lower end of the price scale,” he said.
Q4 2011 Housing Affordability Index – Feb. 9, 2012
California’s housing affordability rose to its highest level in fourth-quarter 2011, matching a record high set in 2009, thanks to lower home prices and record-low interest rates, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.) reported today.
A Solution to the Housing Crisis Could Be at Hand -Short sales and other measures are starting to clear the backlog
By Peter Coy and Prashant Gopal
Lenders and government agencies have finally begun to understand how to deal with the crash by efficiently saving the homes of people who can afford to stay in them—and quickly recycling the properties of delinquent borrowers who are beyond hope.
As always, I’m available if you want to talk about the market, or explore your options for buying, selling or investing in East Bay real estate. You can reach me directly at 510.333.4460.
You can download an entire copy of Glens Numbers through January 2012 here.
Glen’s East Bay Housing Numbers Through December 2010
January 5, 2011 by Glen Bell · View Comments
Glen’s December East Bay Housing NumbersHappy 2011 to everyone out there. Here’s the latest edition of my East Bay Housing Numbers.
- For the second straight month, we’ve seen a decline in inventory, down 21.7% since the beginning of October. However, the number of listings still far exceed the levels we saw at the same time last year. There are now 6,247 homes listed in the 38 cities I cover, as compared to 3,690 for last December. The months supply now sits at 3.1 months, below October’s level of 3.9 months but still well above the 1.7 months we saw last December.
- Pending sales, (homes that have gone into contract), have kept pace with the decline in inventory, now at 5,995. This is below the levels we saw last December, at 6,133.
- Our Pending/Active Ratio has only slightly increased to .85, an improvement, but still indicating that we are, on the whole, in a “buyer’s market.”
- Sales remain sluggish for Alameda and Contra Costa Counties, down 11.4%, which is roughly about the same that we saw last year in December.
- The share of foreclosure listings has increased 6.7% since midyear. Foreclosure activity remains high by historical standards but below peak levels reached over the last two years.
- The median price for Alameda and Contra Costa Counties are both below midyear and December of last year;
Related Bay Area Housing News
DQNEWS: Bay Area November Home Sales, Median Price Down from a Year Ago
“Clearly, Bay Area buyers and sellers who can wait this market out, are doing just that. And if you’re buying or selling in the upper half of the market, it’s self-evident that you’re more able to put your move on hold,” said John Walsh, MDA DataQuick president.
“The thing is, demand is accumulating. And at some point the market will kick back into gear. It’s possible that prices have bottomed out, and it seems likely that today’s interest rates won’t be around a year from now. There will be catch-up activity, but the big question is timing. We’ll have to see what happens with employment, the economy, and with today’s tight credit,” he said.
Los Angeles Times: When will housing come back in California? Five experts offer their views
Foreclosures in the state are still high. Sales of new homes are at historic lows. And millions of homeowners are underwater on their mortgages. So what’s the outlook for 2011 and beyond?
My opinion is that we’ll see minimal increases in both sales volume & appreciation in the East Bay area. Distressed properties will continue to play a role for the foreseeable future. Jobs and interest rates will be driving factors.
As always, I’m available if you want to talk about the market, or explore your options for buying, selling or investing in East Bay real estate. You can reach me directly at 510.333.4460.
You can download the entire copy of Glens East Bay Housing Numbers through Dec 31-2010 here
Equal Housing Opportunity. Equal Opportunity Employer.