East Bay Housing Data – Glen’s Numbers through December 2011
January 9, 2012 by Glen Bell · View Comments
Well, 2012 is officially here & I just finished compiling the lastest batch of Glen’s East Bay Housing Numbers… here they are.
The December numbers
- 2011 comes to a close on the verge of what appears to be a market in transition. Inventory of homes for sale have dropped for the 8th consecutive month bringing us to the lowest levels since December of 2009.
- The month’s supply for the combined 38 city area that I track is now 1.9 months, far below normal, and again reaching lows we haven’t seen since December of 2009.
- Our Pending/Active Ratio has increased again to 1.54, normally considered in a seller’s market range. Keep in mind that this number is overstated due to the large number of short sales that remain in pending status for longer periods than normal.
- Distressed properties, (REOs and Short Sales), are still a large part of our local markets. 54% of the active listings, 78% of our pending sales (primarily due to the large number of short sales – 61%), and 52% of the sales over the last 4 months are distressed properties.
Some Comments on “What’s this All Mean?”
I asked this question a couple of months ago; “With lower home prices and record low interest rates, why aren’t more people buying now?”
Well, in a sense they are. It really comes to where and in what price range. We’re seeing an increase in activity at the lower priced home market levels in many areas where the focus is with first time home buyers and investors. Increased demand coupled with lower inventory is beginning to place an upward pressure on prices. We’re beginning to see an increase in multiple offers. For both counties combined (Alameda & Contra Costa), 51.2% of sales over the past 4 months fall into this lower end price range (below $300,000).
The mid price levels ($300,000 to $750,000) continue to be sluggish primarily due to a lack “move-up” buyers who have experienced a loss of equity in their own homes, plus the uncertainty of the economy, including job concerns and the difficulty in obtaining a loan.
The pending and active graphs, attached, seem to be following a similar pattern that we saw happen during 2009 and at the beginning half of 2010. Inventory levels reached their low point in December 2009 before rebounding the beginning of 2010. If early indications hold up, we may see inventory pick up again at the start of the year, followed by an increase in pendings, and in the months supply. The beginning of 2010 experienced a slight seller’s market. Will history repeats itself?
Other Recent News
Bay Area Home Prices Low, Sales Creep Up December 14, 2011 – DQNews
Bay Area home sales were ahead of 2010 for the fifth month in a row in November, despite limited mortgage availability and sluggish high-end sales. The median sale price fell again on a year-over-year basis, partly because of the slowdown in sales above the mid point for prices, a real estate information service reported.
“These days, buyers and sellers have to contend with two sets of problems, which sometimes play into each other and sometimes conflict with each other. The first is the lousy economy and the opportunities it presents, for better or worse. The second is the dysfunctional mortgage finance system. Interest rates may be at record lows, but the types of mortgages that are available have been drastically reduced and qualifying is a true grind,” said John Walsh, DataQuick president.
“This creates uncertainty. Many potential buyers and sellers appear to be in a frame of mind that says, ‘when in doubt, don’t,’” he said.
Bay Area home prices expected to stabilize in 2012
After years of decline, housing prices are expected to stabilize or even increase in some parts of the Bay Area this year, according to a new forecast.
Stabilizing prices are a sign of a healthier market, even though homebuyers still face challenges — tight credit, not many homes for sale and competition from investors paying cash.
In a report to be released Monday, Clear Capital, a real estate valuations company in Truckee, predicts that prices will remain almost flat this year — compared with a 4.7 percent drop in 2011 — in the San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont metropolitan area, including Contra Costa County.
As always, I’m available if you want to talk about the market, or explore your options for buying, selling or investing in East Bay real estate. You can reach me directly at 510.333.4460.
You can download an entire copy of Glens Numbers through December 2011 here .
East Bay Housing Data – Glen’s Numbers through October 2011
November 14, 2011 by Glen Bell · View Comments
The Pending/active ratio; this once reliable market indicator is now signaling that we are in a sellers’ market.
But, it doesn’t feel like we’re in a Sellers’ market
Inventory has gradually decreased since April, (down 19.2% compared to a 37% increase over the same period of time last year). Month’s supply is now only 2.7 months. We haven’t seen inventory this low since April of 2010. Lower inventory usually means more competition favoring sellers.
However, we’re seeing homes stay on the market longer, sell for under asking, more transactions falling out, many price reductions or homes that are simply being withdrawn from the market.
With lower home prices and record low interest rates, why aren’t more people buying now?
1) The loss of equity for many home owners have kept many from “moving up” into the mid level priced homes.
2) The continued turbulent economic news has scared many buyers back onto the fence, with concerns that things will only get worse or that their own jobs may be in jeopardy. They are waiting for the “uncertainty” in the markets to go away before committing to making one of the most important decisions of their life, buying a new home.
3) Over 60% of the market now consists of first time home buyers and/or investors looking for bargains primarily focused on the lower end of the market, (homes that are selling for $300,000 and below).
4) 57% of pending sales in the area are now short sales. This has skewed the numbers because they have longer escrows and many transactions never close. Taking this into consideration, the pending active ratio is misleading and should actually be adjusted down.
5) There’s a larger fall out of transactions due to the difficulty of first time home buyers getting their loans.
6) Of the few remaining buyers left, many are feeling that they will stay in their next home longer, passing on the smaller homes for something larger and in a more “move in” condition.
As always, I’m available if you want to talk about the market, or explore your options for buying, selling or investing in East Bay real estate. You can reach me directly at 510.333.4460.
You can download an entire copy of Glen’s East Bay Housing Numbers Through October 2011 here.
East Bay Housing Data – Glen’s Numbers through September 2011
October 13, 2011 by Glen Bell · View Comments
The latest East Bay housing numbers are in & for the fifth month in a row we’ve seen another slight decrease in inventory, a 12.5% drop since the end of April. This isn’t typical because we’re usually just starting to back off about this time of year. We saw nearly a 38.4% increase last year during the same period.
The months supply for the combined 38 city area that I track is now 2.9 months, slightly below normal.
Our Pending/Active Ratio has increased again slightly to 1.08, again slowly returning towards a “normal” market range. Keep in mind that this number is overstated due to the large number of short sales that remain in pending status for longer periods than normal.
Distressed properties, (REOs and Short Sales), are still a large part of our local markets. Although this is slowly becoming less of a factor with listings. 47% of the active listings, 74% of our pending sales (primarily due to the large number of short sales – 57%), and 49% of the sales over the last 4 months are distressed properties.
Other Recent News
Here are a few points that stood out to me from C.A.R.’s California Housing Market Forecast for 2012
Good fundamentals, but still dependent on the consumer & jobs.
“Despite the run of unforeseen global events in the first half of this year that slowed the overall economy, 2011 home sales are projected to essentially remain unchanged from last year,” said C.A.R. President Beth L. Peerce. “Looking ahead, the fundamentals of the housing market – such as low mortgage rates, high housing affordability, and favorable home prices – are expected to continue, but at this point, a strong housing recovery will depend on consumer confidence, job creation, and the availability and cost of home loans.”
Improved mix.
“Discretionary sellers will play a larger role in next year’s housing market,” said Peerce. “Those who held off selling in 2011 may list their homes in 2012, thereby improving the mix of homes for sale compared with the last few years. Additionally, distressed sales will remain an important segment of the overall market as lenders continue to work through the foreclosure process.”
Another transition year.
“2012 will be another transition year for the California housing market, as the continued uncertainty about the U.S. financial system, job growth, and the stability of the overall economy remain in the forefront for all market participants,” said C.A.R. Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young. “An improvement in job growth, consumer spending, and corresponding gains in housing are essential to a broader recovery in the economy, but would-be buyers will remain cautious as they weigh these myriad uncertainties against the clear opportunities presented by today’s very affordable housing market.
As always, I’m available if you want to talk about the market, or explore your options for buying, selling or investing in East Bay real estate. You can reach me directly at 510.333.4460.
You can download an entire copy of Glen’s East Bay Housing Numbers Through September 2011 here.
East Bay Housing Data – Glen’s Numbers through August 2011
September 14, 2011 by Glen Bell · View Comments
The August numbers are in and for the fourth month in a row we’ve seen another slight decrease in inventory, a 9% drop since the end of April. This isn’t typical because we’re usually just starting to back off about this time of year.
We saw nearly a 32% increase last year during the same period. The months supply for the combined 38 city area that I track is now 3 months, slightly below normal.
Our Pending/Active Ratio has increased slightly to 1.06, again slowly returning towards a “normal” market range. Keep in mind that this number is overstated due to the large number of short sales that remain in pending status for longer periods than normal.
Distressed properties, (REOs and Short Sales), are still a large part of our local markets. Although this is slowly becoming less of a factor with listings. 47% of the active listings, 73% of our pending sales (primarily due to the large number of short sales – 56%), and 49% of the sales over the last 4 months are distressed properties.
From Around the Web…
Last month’s sales fell harder in the higher price ranges: The number of $500,000-plus homes sold dropped 25.4 percent month-to-month and 19.2 percent year-over-year.
“There’s certainly a lot more discretionary buying in the higher price ranges,” said John Walsh, DataQuick president. “A lot of those buyers have the option to just take it or leave it and, lately, it looks like more have been leaving it. There was a lot of uncertainty out there over the economy, home prices and the nation’s future. And that was before the stock market turbulence hit in early August.”
– DQNews: Bay Area Housing Market Takes a Breather
“Home buying will be conservative in the months ahead until we get a sense of which direction this economy is heading,” said Robert Dye, chief economist at Comerica Inc. in Dallas, who forecast a decline for July. “No one wants to buy into a soft housing market. We’ve seen prices remain soft in many areas.”
– Existing home sales unexpectedly dropped in July – Alex Kowalski, Bloomberg News
As always, I’m available if you want to talk about the market, or explore your options for buying, selling or investing in East Bay real estate. You can reach me directly at 510.333.4460.
You can download an entire copy of Glen’s East Bay Housing Numbers Through August 2011 here.
East Bay Housing Data – Glen’s Numbers through May 2011
June 6, 2011 by Glen Bell · View Comments
The latest East Bay Housing Numbers are in, and surprisingly we saw a slight drop (1.7%) in overall inventory. This is the first reduction in the number of homes listed for sale since November of 2010 and slightly surprising considering that we’re entering peak summer home buying season.
Distressed properties, (REOs and Short Sales), are still a large part of our local markets. Although this is slowly becoming less of a factor with listings. 47% of the active listings, 70% of our pending sales and 56% of the sales over the last 4 months are distressed properties.
The Pending/Active Ratio, which we use to gauge general market strength, has increased slightly to .97. Trending to towards a balanced market (1.00). Keep in mind that there are a large number of short sales that remain in pending status for longer periods than normal, this keeps the pending count higher, and in turn skews the ratio to the upside. With that in mind, we would consider East Bay Housing to be in a slight buyer’s market.
Recent News
For all of those following the recent stories circulating about the latest Case-Shiller findings on the housing market, showing a nationwide double dip in housing prices, but I believe the news from Altos research may be closer to the truth.
Many experts have been predicting a U-Shaped recovery. Last year we saw a false bottom. Now, we hear that we might be in a Catfish Recovery.
A Catfish Recovery?
“[Altos Research VP Scott] Sambucci laid it out by describing the catfish as a bottom dweller that moves slowly, feeding off the lake or river floor for a while, then heads up to the surface and back down, bobbing up and down without a distinct pattern or clear direction.”
“Altos says markets should plan for prices over the long term to hit a bottom, rise a bit, sink back down, rise again.”
- via Double Dip: Altos Says Prices Have Been Steadily Rising Since Then
Yes, we’ve been saying for several months now that we were seeing further reductions in values for the SF Bay Area. However, we have been seeing different scenarios depending on what area you focused on and at what price level, once again proving that the real story is being told at the micro-market level.
As always, I’m available if you want to talk about the market, or explore your options for buying, selling or investing in East Bay real estate. You can reach me directly at 510.333.4460.
You can download an entire copy of Glen’s East Bay Housing Numbers Through May 2011 here.
If you’re looking for more news throughout the month, check out the MyEastBayAgent Twitter feed for the latest links.
East Bay Housing Data – Glen’s Numbers through April 2011
May 8, 2011 by Glen Bell · View Comments
The latest East Bay Housing Numbers are in, and again we’re seeing a slight increase in both inventory levels and in pendings compared to March. Inventory is up 11.4% and pendings are up 20.7% since the beginning of the year.
The months supply is now 3.5 months, above the 3.1 months at the beginning of the year and well above the 2.6 month supply we saw last year at this time.
Our Pending/Active Ratio has increased slightly to .92, slowly returning towards a “normal” market.
Distressed properties, (REOs and Short Sales), are still a large part of our local markets making up 60% of the active listings, 77% of our pending sales and 49% of the sales over the last 4 months.
As always, I’m available if you want to talk about the market, or explore your options for buying, selling or investing in East Bay real estate. You can reach me directly at 510.333.4460.
You can download an entire copy of Glen’s East Bay Housing Numbers Through April 2011 here.
Other News from Around the Web
“Housing Values: The Perfect Storm,” 4/26/2011 – DSNews
“With all the news of still-declining home prices, most buyers are keeping their feet firmly planted on the sidelines unless they’re sure they’re getting a bargain.” – Carrie Bay
Sales up, Prices Down for Bay Area Housing Market, April 14, 2011 – DQNews
“Bay Area home sales last month logged the best March in four years, barely, as prices slipped back a notch. A variety of indicators – including investor and cash purchase levels and adjustable-rate loan use – pointed toward a more normal market, though suggested that it’s still a ways off, a real estate information service reported. “
“The housing market has certainly moved well back from the abyss of two years ago, but there is quite a ways to go before it’s even remotely normal. The Bay Area has much less of a foreclosure problem than the rest of the state, but by its own standards it’s still a sizeable problem that acts as a drag on prices. The big issue continues to be mortgage financing, which is still problematic for many potential borrowers,” said John Walsh, DataQuick president.
“California Mortgage Defaults Drop Again; Foreclosures up,” April 19, 2011 – DQNews
California’s priciest zip codes collectively saw mortgage defaults buck the market-wide trend again and rise slightly quarter-to-quarter, while their defaults fell less on a year-over-year basis than in the overall market. The state’s 80 zip codes with median sale prices of $800,000 or more last quarter posted a 5.8 percent quarter-to-quarter increase in default notices and a 4.7 percent year-over-year decline.
At the other end of the price spectrum, zips with medians below $200,000 saw first-quarter defaults drop 5.5 percent from the prior quarter and drop 17.7 percent from a year ago.
If you’re looking for more news throughout the month, check out the MyEastBayAgent Twitter feed for the latest links.
Explore East Bay Price Reductions w/ Trulia’s New Visualization Tool
April 14, 2011 by Andy Kaufman · View Comments
If you’re an East Bay housing data geek like us, you’re going to want to check out the latest visualization from Trulia.
Through this data visualization, you can hover over a zip code and you’ll find: the days before the first reduction, the average percent reduction & the probability of a second reduction.
Although there seems to be a data black hole in Berkeley, I found myself spending some time exploring trends in the different areas. Give it a try and let me know what you think!
East Bay Housing Data – Glen’s Numbers through February 2011
March 7, 2011 by Glen Bell · View Comments
This month’s edition of Glen’s East Bay Housing Numbers is in and February seemed somewhat uneventful on the surface.
Inventory stayed relatively even compared to January with a slight increase seen in pending sales, up about 8.5%. The months supply remained steady at 3.3 months, still well above the 2 month supply we saw last year.
The Pending/Active Ratio increased to .88, still indicating that we are still, on the whole, in a mild buyer’s market.
Sales continue to remain sluggish. We’re seeing, as a trend in most cities, days on market slowly increasing, median prices decreasing slightly and the average sales price coming down slightly in comparison to the average list price.
Other Recent News
“Bay Area home sales took their normal plunge from December last month but rose slightly from a year ago as prices edged lower. Although investors stayed quite active, many potential buyers and sellers continued to play a waiting game, while new-home sales dropped to the lowest level in more than two decades.” DQ News
As always, I’m available if you want to talk about the market, or explore your options for buying, selling or investing in East Bay real estate. You can reach me directly at 510.333.4460.
You can download the entire copy of Glens East Bay Housing Numbers through Feb-2011 here.
East Bay Housing Market Stats: Another REO Surprise!
February 27, 2008 by Glen Bell · View Comments
As a follow-up to last month’s REO surprise, “that one out of every five listings in the SF Bay Area is REO, Bank Owned Properties,” we asked ourselves another question.
What is really influencing housing inventory and pricing in the SF Bay Area?
We’ve always heard that new construction has been the main culprit with overbuilding leading to a glut of houses for sale. All that new housing located along highway 4, Antioch, Brentwood, Pittsburg, Oakley seems to have led the way. After all, those areas are seeing between a 15 to 25% drop from last year’s prices. (Median prices compared on a year to year basis for January).
So we ran some numbers again using DQ News and EBRD MLS services to see which has the greatest influence over listings and sales on a city by city basis. Numbers were pulled as of January 31, 2008.
SURPRISED again!
Well, with all of the subprime fallout, foreclosures, and REO news rolling around in the news, maybe it really isn’t such a surprise.
The following list seems to put it in perspective.
Glen’s East Bay housing numbers
Reasons may vary, and differ depending on location. However, it is apparent that REOs, Bank Owned Properties, are now, the major influence on housing inventory and sales in the SF Bay Area.
Banks are the competition in a big way for sellers. Banks think differently about selling. Banks are becoming more aggressive in selling their properties. Not much in show or presentation, simply priced below the competition.
In many of our conversations this week, we’ve been hearing that activity has picked up. The word seems to be that “investors” are looking for bargains in the marketplace.
We have to agree that we are seeing that with our own REO listings. So we have to ask ourselves the next big question, will investors be leading the way?
Maybe they’re smart enough to realize that timing a real estate market bottom is next to impossible. Maybe with low interest rates, lots of choices, and not many other buyers out there, this just may be the right time to pick up a bargain.
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