Glen’s East Bay Housing Numbers (through May 2010)
June 3, 2010 by Glen Bell · View Comments
The May edition of Glen’s East Bay Housing Numbers show that housing inventories continued to climb at an unusually fast pace, up 64% since the beginning of the year. Since January 1st the month’s supply has increased from 1.7 months to 2.8 months while the pending over active ratio dropped from 1.66 to 1.18.
When comparing these numbers to May of 2009, we’re able to put this in a better perspective.
Last year’s May numbers are similar to this year’s as follows:
1) Active Listings (Homes for sale) are roughly within 2% of last year’s numbers.
2) Pending Sales (Homes in contract) are within 5% of last year’s numbers.
3) We now have a 2.8 month supply, the same as last year.
4) The Pending over active ratio was 1.15 last year, now 1.18.
Although it’s typical to see a swing up in homes coming onto the market from December to May, we haven’t seen an increase of this size so quickly since I have been tracking these numbers (2005).
I think the real question to ask here is not why are we seeing such a huge increase but why were December’s numbers so low?
Government programs and concerns over bank financial statements were an influence. REOs continued to dominate sales while few were coming on to replenish the market. As an REO agent, dealing in foreclosed properties, our assignments dropped off dramatically beginning last fall. Other REO agents confirmed similar circumstances. This is also consistent with what many media sources have indicated.
A comparison over a four month period, between this year and last year, shows a dramatic drop in REO sales. 32% of the sales over the last 4 months have been REOs. For the same four month period last year, 63% of sales were REOs.
This year’s increase was not dominated by distressed properties coming onto the market. Active listings, pending sales, and sales over the last 4 months are all down by about 5% compared to what they were at the beginning of the year.
From what we’re hearing, this may change in the coming months. Foreclosure activity has increased over the last few weeks and we, as well as other agents, are beginning to see new assignments.
All indications are that distressed properties will continue to be a factor for several years.
SF East Bay Housing Statisitics & REO Surprise
January 16, 2008 by Glen Bell · View Comments
It seems that every day now, we see more and more properties for sale that are listed as REO (Bank Owned Foreclosures), and/or Short Sales.
Our team, has always run numbers as a means to better understand our markets. We researched the EBRD multiple listings service, following a conversation that we had last night. We were not surprised as to which cities had a higher percentage of REOs.
However, we did not expect the number for the entire San Francisco East Bay area to be this high, 21%. That means that roughly one in five houses that are for sale, are Bank Owned in the East Bay area. The interesting factor is that this number does not include “Short Sales.”
When lenders allow a home to be sold for less than the amount still owing on the mortgage loan, that’s called a pre-closure “Short Sale!”
I think you can see where this is going once you add “short sales” into the mix as well. The competition for many houses for sale in the market are from banks.
Here’s our spreadsheet tracking cities in the San Francisco East Bay Area for Months Supply and REOs. Months supply is the ratio of inventory to sales. It tells us how many months the stock of homes for sale would last, if sales continued at their current rate.
2008-01-16 Glen’s Numbers & Months Supply
For those living in other parts of the country, we’d love to hear what’s happening in your market. We’ve already heard from one Las Vegas agent, that 20.8% of their listings are REOs or short sales.
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