Glen’s East Bay Housing Numbers – Through April 2012
May 10, 2012 by Glen Bell · View Comments
The latest round of East Bay housing numbers are in and surprisingly April’s Numbers saw another decrease in East Bay Inventory. The amount of homes for sale is now at the lowest point since August of 2005.
- Inventory for the East Bay (the 38 cities tracked) is now at its’ lowest level since August of 2005. As of 4/30/2012, there were 3,052 homes listed active for sale. To give you some perspective; the low point since I have been tracking numbers was in July 2005 at 2,607. The high was in July 2007 at 13, 053.
- The month’s supply for the combined 38 city area is now at 1.4 months. Historically, a 4 to 5 months supply is considered normal for this area.
- Our Pending/Active Ratio has climbed to 2.44, again signaling a strong seller’s market. This is the second month in a row that the ratio has been above 2, a first since I began this process. Keep in mind that this number is overstated due to the large number of short sales that remain in pending status for longer periods than normal.
- Distressed properties, (REOs and Short Sales), are still a large part of our local markets but declining somewhat. 37% of the active listings, 70% of our pending sales (primarily due to the large number of short sales – 55%), and 54% of the sales over the last 4 months are distressed properties.
One question that may come to mind is that if inventory is so low, with multiple offers more frequently in all price ranges, why the sales numbers not reflect that.
Shouldn’t we be seeing shorter DOM numbers and shouldn’t the Sales Price % of List Price be higher due to upward pressure on prices? The answer really has to do with the time frames being compared. The Active and Pending numbers are as of the end of April. Sales numbers are being pulled from the previous 4 months with properties that went pending 30 to 60 days prior to that.
The sales numbers are still reflecting what was going on in the market as much as 6 months ago, whereas the Active and Pending numbers are reflecting what is going on in the market right now. The sales numbers will eventually catch up and reflect what we’re seeing now as being a strong seller’s market, but it may take a few months before we actually see and read about it in the newspapers.
Of course one of the many issues this causes is that buyers are now having a difficult time with appraisals. Comps only a few months old may no longer be an accurate representation of value in a market moving upward.
As always, I’m available if you want to talk about the market, or explore your options for buying, selling or investing in East Bay real estate. You can reach me directly at 510.333.4460.
You can download an entire copy of Glens Numbers through April 2012 here.
Other Recent News
Stunned Home Buyers Find the Bidding Wars Are Back – April 27, 2012, Wall Street Journal – Nick Timiraos
Competitive bidding in the current environment isn’t producing huge price increases or leaving sellers with hefty profits, as occurred during the housing boom. Still, the bidding wars caused by tight inventory provide the latest evidence that housing demand is starting to pick up after a six-year-long slump.
“We very much believe we’ve hit bottom,” said Ivy Zelman, chief executive of a research firm, who was among the first to warn of a downturn seven years ago. Earlier this week, she raised her home-price forecast for the year, calling for a 1% annual gain, up from a 1% decline.
Inventory levels in many markets were at the lowest level in years. Nearly 83% of offers that Redfin agents have made on behalf of clients in the San Francisco Bay area this year and 71% in Southern California have had competing bids.
Further Decline in California Foreclosure Activity - April 24, 2012 – DQNews
The number of California homes entering the formal foreclosure process during the first quarter declined to its lowest level in almost five years, the result of a more stable economy and housing market, as well as policies that increasingly favor short sales, a real estate information service reported.
Bay Area Home Sales Continue to Rise. Condo Sales Jump. - April 19, 2012 – DQNews
March home sales in the Bay Area were at their highest level for that month in five years, the result of lower prices, low interest rates and an improving economy. Prices appeared to be leveling off across more of the region and may be poised to start inching back up in the stronger submarkets, a real estate information service reported.
California pending home sales up for third straight month, highest level in nearly three years - April 24, 2012 – C.A.R.
California pending home sales posted higher for the third consecutive month in March, rising from both the previous month and year, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.) reported today. Additionally, the share of distressed sales dropped for the second consecutive month, as equity sales typically increase with the start of the spring home buying season.
Glen’s East Bay Housing Numbers – Through January 2012
February 14, 2012 by Glen Bell · View Comments
Welcome to the New Year!
The beginning of the New Year has a similar look and feel to what we saw at the beginning of 2010. After hitting an inventory low in December for the year 2011, we actually saw a very slight gain in the number of homes for sale in January. This ended an 8 months streak of falling inventory.
Like 2010, with inventories this low, a slight “seller’s market” followed into summer. We’re starting to hear some positives in the market;
- As Clear Capital reported last month, “After years of decline, housing prices are expected to stabilize or even increase in some parts of the Bay Area this year, according to a new forecast.”
- The affordability index in California has reached a previous record high set in 2009.
- The Recent Robo-Signing Settlement.
- Home Affordable Modification Programs and proposed legislation addressing housing.
- Consumer sentiment improving as indicated by a recent Fannie Mae Survey.
- The employment market continues to strengthen
- Record low interest rates.
- Housing starts are still running at only one-third of their 2006 peak, but are up from their 2009-11 lows
Buyers who have remained on the fence due to the uncertainty in our economy are now beginning to slowing trickle back into the market. We’re starting to see some competition in desirable areas that have fewer homes for buyers to look at. This past month has brought us more multiple offer scenarios with pending sales going over asking.
As for the January numbers;
- The month’s supply for the combined 38 city area that I track is still at 1.9 months, again far below normal, and similar to what we saw at the beginning of 2010.
- Inventory typically drops off during the winter months plus we’ve been seeing banks slow down during this same time over the past 3 seasons with self imposed moratoriums during the Holidays.
- Our Pending/Active Ratio remained relatively high at 1.51, normally considered a seller’s market range. Keep in mind that this number is overstated due to the large number of short sales that remain in pending status for longer periods than normal.
- Distressed properties, (REOs and Short Sales), are still a large part of our local markets. 50% of the active listings, 77% of our pending sales (primarily due to the large number of short sales – 60%), and 55% of the sales over the last 4 months are distressed properties.
Other Recent News
DQNews, Summing up the Year – January 18, 2012
The Bay Area’s housing market rounded out 2011 much the way it started it: with constricted and atypical sales activity, lots of bottom feeding, and a largely dormant mid- to move-up market.
“We’ll remember 2011 as much for what didn’t happen as for what did. People put discretionary buying and selling on hold, except at the very top of the market. The spectacular gains in affordability, based on the combination of lower prices and ultra-low interest rates, was largely theoretical for many people because it was so hard to get a mortgage. That, combined with negative equity and economic uncertainty, kept people away,” said John Walsh, DataQuick president.
“Many of the deals that did make their way through the system were in the distressed arena – foreclosures and short sales. Much of it was deeply discounted cash purchases, disproportionately at the lower end of the price scale,” he said.
Q4 2011 Housing Affordability Index – Feb. 9, 2012
California’s housing affordability rose to its highest level in fourth-quarter 2011, matching a record high set in 2009, thanks to lower home prices and record-low interest rates, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.) reported today.
A Solution to the Housing Crisis Could Be at Hand -Short sales and other measures are starting to clear the backlog
By Peter Coy and Prashant Gopal
Lenders and government agencies have finally begun to understand how to deal with the crash by efficiently saving the homes of people who can afford to stay in them—and quickly recycling the properties of delinquent borrowers who are beyond hope.
As always, I’m available if you want to talk about the market, or explore your options for buying, selling or investing in East Bay real estate. You can reach me directly at 510.333.4460.
You can download an entire copy of Glens Numbers through January 2012 here.
East Bay Housing Data – Glen’s Numbers through September 2011
October 13, 2011 by Glen Bell · View Comments
The latest East Bay housing numbers are in & for the fifth month in a row we’ve seen another slight decrease in inventory, a 12.5% drop since the end of April. This isn’t typical because we’re usually just starting to back off about this time of year. We saw nearly a 38.4% increase last year during the same period.
The months supply for the combined 38 city area that I track is now 2.9 months, slightly below normal.
Our Pending/Active Ratio has increased again slightly to 1.08, again slowly returning towards a “normal” market range. Keep in mind that this number is overstated due to the large number of short sales that remain in pending status for longer periods than normal.
Distressed properties, (REOs and Short Sales), are still a large part of our local markets. Although this is slowly becoming less of a factor with listings. 47% of the active listings, 74% of our pending sales (primarily due to the large number of short sales – 57%), and 49% of the sales over the last 4 months are distressed properties.
Other Recent News
Here are a few points that stood out to me from C.A.R.’s California Housing Market Forecast for 2012
Good fundamentals, but still dependent on the consumer & jobs.
“Despite the run of unforeseen global events in the first half of this year that slowed the overall economy, 2011 home sales are projected to essentially remain unchanged from last year,” said C.A.R. President Beth L. Peerce. “Looking ahead, the fundamentals of the housing market – such as low mortgage rates, high housing affordability, and favorable home prices – are expected to continue, but at this point, a strong housing recovery will depend on consumer confidence, job creation, and the availability and cost of home loans.”
Improved mix.
“Discretionary sellers will play a larger role in next year’s housing market,” said Peerce. “Those who held off selling in 2011 may list their homes in 2012, thereby improving the mix of homes for sale compared with the last few years. Additionally, distressed sales will remain an important segment of the overall market as lenders continue to work through the foreclosure process.”
Another transition year.
“2012 will be another transition year for the California housing market, as the continued uncertainty about the U.S. financial system, job growth, and the stability of the overall economy remain in the forefront for all market participants,” said C.A.R. Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young. “An improvement in job growth, consumer spending, and corresponding gains in housing are essential to a broader recovery in the economy, but would-be buyers will remain cautious as they weigh these myriad uncertainties against the clear opportunities presented by today’s very affordable housing market.
As always, I’m available if you want to talk about the market, or explore your options for buying, selling or investing in East Bay real estate. You can reach me directly at 510.333.4460.
You can download an entire copy of Glen’s East Bay Housing Numbers Through September 2011 here.
East Bay Housing Data – Glen’s Numbers through June 2011
July 8, 2011 by Glen Bell · View Comments
The latest East Bay Housing numbers are in and for the second month in a row we’ve seen a slight decrease in inventory, 4.6% since the end of April. This isn’t typical because we’re usually picking up steam this time of year. We saw nearly a 14% increase last year. The months supply for the combined 38 city area that I track is now 3.3 months.
Our Pending/Active Ratio has increased slightly to .99, slowly returning towards a “normal” market range. Again, keep in mind that this number is overstated due to the large number of short sales that remain in pending status for longer periods than normal.
Distressed properties, (REOs and Short Sales), are still a large part of our local markets. Although this is slowly becoming less of a factor with listings. 45% of the active listings, 68% of our pending sales and 52% of the sales over the last 4 months are distressed properties.
Other Recent Housing News
A MacroMarkets survey of over 100 economists, investment strategists, and housing market analysts regarding their 5-year expectations for future home prices in the United States showed that…
“A significant majority of our panelists believe that the bottom for home prices arrived in the first quarter or will arrive sometime before year-end (2011). Despite persistent macroeconomic uncertainty and unprecedented housing market dysfunction, almost two-thirds of the panelists see the U.S. residential real estate market as at an historic turning point,” Robert Shiller said in a statement.
Price Expectations Survey, compiled from 108 responses of a diverse group of economists, real estate. “69 panelists who are currently forecasting a 2011 turning point predict less than two percent average annual growth in nominal home prices over the five-year period ending December 2015.”
If we really are close to a true bottom in home prices, that this combined with the continued low interest rates makes for a favorable buying environment.
From Reality Check: It’s a homebuyer’s market
“You’re seeing more and more markets across the country right now where the cost to acquire and own property financially simply makes more sense than renting,” says Budge Huskey, president and chief operating officer of Coldwell Banker Real Estate.
Huskey says buyers need to focus on their local market conditions instead of reacting to what they read about nationally.
We know there is a pent up demand from buyers simply looking for the right time, he says: “They’re trying to time what they consider to be the bottom of the market, which we know is almost impossible to do.”
If you’re looking to buy do your homework, consult a banker, and look only at homes you can comfortably afford. If it’s your first, remember it doesn’t need to be your dream home. Buying a starter, building equity, and trading up remains a good strategy.
As always, I’m available if you want to talk about the market, or explore your options for buying, selling or investing in East Bay real estate. You can reach me directly at 510.333.4460.
You can download an entire copy of Glen’s East Bay Housing Numbers Through June 2011 here.
East Bay Housing Data – Glen’s Numbers through April 2011
May 8, 2011 by Glen Bell · View Comments
The latest East Bay Housing Numbers are in, and again we’re seeing a slight increase in both inventory levels and in pendings compared to March. Inventory is up 11.4% and pendings are up 20.7% since the beginning of the year.
The months supply is now 3.5 months, above the 3.1 months at the beginning of the year and well above the 2.6 month supply we saw last year at this time.
Our Pending/Active Ratio has increased slightly to .92, slowly returning towards a “normal” market.
Distressed properties, (REOs and Short Sales), are still a large part of our local markets making up 60% of the active listings, 77% of our pending sales and 49% of the sales over the last 4 months.
As always, I’m available if you want to talk about the market, or explore your options for buying, selling or investing in East Bay real estate. You can reach me directly at 510.333.4460.
You can download an entire copy of Glen’s East Bay Housing Numbers Through April 2011 here.
Other News from Around the Web
“Housing Values: The Perfect Storm,” 4/26/2011 – DSNews
“With all the news of still-declining home prices, most buyers are keeping their feet firmly planted on the sidelines unless they’re sure they’re getting a bargain.” – Carrie Bay
Sales up, Prices Down for Bay Area Housing Market, April 14, 2011 – DQNews
“Bay Area home sales last month logged the best March in four years, barely, as prices slipped back a notch. A variety of indicators – including investor and cash purchase levels and adjustable-rate loan use – pointed toward a more normal market, though suggested that it’s still a ways off, a real estate information service reported. “
“The housing market has certainly moved well back from the abyss of two years ago, but there is quite a ways to go before it’s even remotely normal. The Bay Area has much less of a foreclosure problem than the rest of the state, but by its own standards it’s still a sizeable problem that acts as a drag on prices. The big issue continues to be mortgage financing, which is still problematic for many potential borrowers,” said John Walsh, DataQuick president.
“California Mortgage Defaults Drop Again; Foreclosures up,” April 19, 2011 – DQNews
California’s priciest zip codes collectively saw mortgage defaults buck the market-wide trend again and rise slightly quarter-to-quarter, while their defaults fell less on a year-over-year basis than in the overall market. The state’s 80 zip codes with median sale prices of $800,000 or more last quarter posted a 5.8 percent quarter-to-quarter increase in default notices and a 4.7 percent year-over-year decline.
At the other end of the price spectrum, zips with medians below $200,000 saw first-quarter defaults drop 5.5 percent from the prior quarter and drop 17.7 percent from a year ago.
If you’re looking for more news throughout the month, check out the MyEastBayAgent Twitter feed for the latest links.
East Bay Housing Data – Glen’s Numbers through March 2011
April 10, 2011 by Glen Bell · View Comments
The latest East Bay Housing numbers are in and they’re showing a slight increase in inventory levels and in pendings compared to February. Pendings are up about 3.1% over last month.
Sales remain sluggish. We’re seeing, as a trend in most cities, days on market slowly increasing, median prices decreasing slightly and the average sales price coming down slightly in comparison to the average list price.
Our Pending/Active Ratio has slightly increased to .90, still indicating that we are, on the whole, in a “buyer’s market,” but slowly returning towards a “normal” market.
The months supply remained steady at 3.3 months, still above the 2.5 month supply we saw last year at this time.
Looking Forward
I saw this post from DQ News Bay Area Housing Market Stuck In Neutral; Investors, Cash Buyers Active & thought it accurately describes what I think is in store for the Bay Are housing market.
“Over the next few months we’ll begin to see how much of the pent-up demand will play out during the traditional spring-summer home-buying season. Our sense is that we could see sales jump significantly from today’s subpar levels if the economic outlook improves, people start feeling more secure in their jobs and credit terms loosen. Some potential buyers also want to see evidence that prices have bottomed. Of course, one group will have to sit this home-buying season out: Those who don’t have enough, if any, equity in their homes.”
As always, I’m available if you want to talk about the market, or explore your options for buying, selling or investing in East Bay real estate. You can reach me directly at 510.333.4460.
You can download an entire copy of Glen’s East Bay Housing Numbers Through March 2011 here.
East Bay Housing Data – Glen’s Numbers through February 2011
March 7, 2011 by Glen Bell · View Comments
This month’s edition of Glen’s East Bay Housing Numbers is in and February seemed somewhat uneventful on the surface.
Inventory stayed relatively even compared to January with a slight increase seen in pending sales, up about 8.5%. The months supply remained steady at 3.3 months, still well above the 2 month supply we saw last year.
The Pending/Active Ratio increased to .88, still indicating that we are still, on the whole, in a mild buyer’s market.
Sales continue to remain sluggish. We’re seeing, as a trend in most cities, days on market slowly increasing, median prices decreasing slightly and the average sales price coming down slightly in comparison to the average list price.
Other Recent News
“Bay Area home sales took their normal plunge from December last month but rose slightly from a year ago as prices edged lower. Although investors stayed quite active, many potential buyers and sellers continued to play a waiting game, while new-home sales dropped to the lowest level in more than two decades.” DQ News
As always, I’m available if you want to talk about the market, or explore your options for buying, selling or investing in East Bay real estate. You can reach me directly at 510.333.4460.
You can download the entire copy of Glens East Bay Housing Numbers through Feb-2011 here.
Glen’s East Bay Housing Numbers Through January 2011
February 14, 2011 by Admin · View Comments
We’re one month into 2011 & here is the latest edition of my East Bay Housing Numbers.
• January brought an increase in inventory, up 5.4%. However, the number of listings still far exceed the levels we saw at the same time last year. There are now 6,582 homes listed in the 38 cities that I cover, as compared to 4,289 for last January. The months supply now sits at 3.3 months, still well above the 2 month supply we saw last year.
• Pending sales, (homes that have gone into contract), have remained relatively flat, now at 5,342. This is below the levels we saw last January, at 6,164.
• Our Pending/Active Ratio has slightly decreased to .81, still indicating that we are, on the whole, in a “buyer’s market.”
• Sales remain sluggish. We’re seeing, as a trend in most cities, days on market slowly increasing, median prices decreasing slightly and the average sales price coming down slightly in comparison to the average list price.
After experiencing a slight double dip in Bay Area home prices, it’s starting to look like we might be closer to a true bottom.
From Carolyn Said’s recent article in the San Francisco Chronicle: Home prices to hit bottom this year, report says…
Stan Humphries, Zillow Chief economist, predicts that the Bay Area and many other markets should hit bottom this year – but that doesn’t mean values will start rising anytime soon.
“I expect a long, flat bottom,” he said. “Most markets will remain in malaise for an extended period of time. It will take at least three years to see more normal appreciation rates, i.e., in the 2 to 4 percent range.”
The reasons? The foreclosure pipeline is still clogged with properties, many homeowners are underwater and unemployment continues apace. About 23 percent of Bay Area homeowners with a mortgage are underwater, owing more than their house is worth.
Home values in the Bay Area experienced a “double dip.” They had risen for five consecutive quarters under the influence of federal and state home-buying tax credits, only to fall again in both the third and fourth quarter of 2010.
As always, I’m available if you want to talk about the market, or explore your options for buying, selling or investing in East Bay real estate. You can reach me directly at 510.333.4460.
You can download the entire copy of Glens East Bay Housing Numbers through Jan-2011 here
Glen’s East Bay Housing Numbers Through December 2010
January 5, 2011 by Glen Bell · View Comments
Glen’s December East Bay Housing NumbersHappy 2011 to everyone out there. Here’s the latest edition of my East Bay Housing Numbers.
- For the second straight month, we’ve seen a decline in inventory, down 21.7% since the beginning of October. However, the number of listings still far exceed the levels we saw at the same time last year. There are now 6,247 homes listed in the 38 cities I cover, as compared to 3,690 for last December. The months supply now sits at 3.1 months, below October’s level of 3.9 months but still well above the 1.7 months we saw last December.
- Pending sales, (homes that have gone into contract), have kept pace with the decline in inventory, now at 5,995. This is below the levels we saw last December, at 6,133.
- Our Pending/Active Ratio has only slightly increased to .85, an improvement, but still indicating that we are, on the whole, in a “buyer’s market.”
- Sales remain sluggish for Alameda and Contra Costa Counties, down 11.4%, which is roughly about the same that we saw last year in December.
- The share of foreclosure listings has increased 6.7% since midyear. Foreclosure activity remains high by historical standards but below peak levels reached over the last two years.
- The median price for Alameda and Contra Costa Counties are both below midyear and December of last year;
Related Bay Area Housing News
DQNEWS: Bay Area November Home Sales, Median Price Down from a Year Ago
“Clearly, Bay Area buyers and sellers who can wait this market out, are doing just that. And if you’re buying or selling in the upper half of the market, it’s self-evident that you’re more able to put your move on hold,” said John Walsh, MDA DataQuick president.
“The thing is, demand is accumulating. And at some point the market will kick back into gear. It’s possible that prices have bottomed out, and it seems likely that today’s interest rates won’t be around a year from now. There will be catch-up activity, but the big question is timing. We’ll have to see what happens with employment, the economy, and with today’s tight credit,” he said.
Los Angeles Times: When will housing come back in California? Five experts offer their views
Foreclosures in the state are still high. Sales of new homes are at historic lows. And millions of homeowners are underwater on their mortgages. So what’s the outlook for 2011 and beyond?
My opinion is that we’ll see minimal increases in both sales volume & appreciation in the East Bay area. Distressed properties will continue to play a role for the foreseeable future. Jobs and interest rates will be driving factors.
As always, I’m available if you want to talk about the market, or explore your options for buying, selling or investing in East Bay real estate. You can reach me directly at 510.333.4460.
You can download the entire copy of Glens East Bay Housing Numbers through Dec 31-2010 here
Glen’s December East Bay Housing Numbers (through November 2010)
December 9, 2010 by Glen Bell · View Comments
This month’s edition of Glen’s East Bay Housing Numbers is in and while sales are down from last year, the market continues to hold stable.
- November was the first month that we have seen a significant decline in inventory since the beginning of the year. 7,226 for the 38 cities tracked in Alameda and Contra Costa County. This is about a 7.5% decrease from the month before. The months supply for the area dropped as well from a 3.9 month supply, a high for the year to, a 3.6 months supply. Typically we see a seasonal drop in inventory this time of year. However, we usually see this trend beginning a couple of months earlier.
- We saw a small decrease for the amount of pending sales at 5,995, (homes that have gone into contract). This is well below the levels we saw in November of last year, 6,750.
- Our Pending/Active Ratio has increased from .78 to .83, an improvement, but still indicating that we are, on the whole, in a “buyer’s market.”
- Sales remain sluggish for Alameda and Contra Costa Counties, down 29% since mid year and down 36% as compared to the previous November in 2009.
- We also saw, across the board, that discounts were greater than the month before. The discount for what homes were selling at in comparison to asking, on average had slightly increased.
What does the future hold for the East Bay housing market? I think jobs are going to be key to any sustained recovery, which means that I’m keeping an eye on the local employment figures and C.A.R. President Beth L. Peerce echos my sentiment.
“Persistent worries about the economy and job security are affecting home sales, despite low mortgage rates and strong affordability” (link)
From most accounts it looks like we’re in for a slow recovery. The latest UCLA Anderson Forecast is forecasting
“Modest growth and distressingly high unemployment” for most of 2011, with an acceleration of growth late next year that will gradually lower the unemployment rate.”
As always, I’m available if you want to talk about the market, or explore your options for buying, selling or investing in East Bay real estate. You can reach me directly at 510.333.4460.
You can download the entire copy of Glen’s East Bay Housing Numbers through 11.30.10 here.
Additional reading;
DQ News, Bay Area Home Sales Fall Sharply; Median Price Dips Below Last Year
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