Glen’s East Bay Housing Numbers – Through April 2012
May 10, 2012 by Glen Bell · View Comments
The latest round of East Bay housing numbers are in and surprisingly April’s Numbers saw another decrease in East Bay Inventory. The amount of homes for sale is now at the lowest point since August of 2005.
- Inventory for the East Bay (the 38 cities tracked) is now at its’ lowest level since August of 2005. As of 4/30/2012, there were 3,052 homes listed active for sale. To give you some perspective; the low point since I have been tracking numbers was in July 2005 at 2,607. The high was in July 2007 at 13, 053.
- The month’s supply for the combined 38 city area is now at 1.4 months. Historically, a 4 to 5 months supply is considered normal for this area.
- Our Pending/Active Ratio has climbed to 2.44, again signaling a strong seller’s market. This is the second month in a row that the ratio has been above 2, a first since I began this process. Keep in mind that this number is overstated due to the large number of short sales that remain in pending status for longer periods than normal.
- Distressed properties, (REOs and Short Sales), are still a large part of our local markets but declining somewhat. 37% of the active listings, 70% of our pending sales (primarily due to the large number of short sales – 55%), and 54% of the sales over the last 4 months are distressed properties.
One question that may come to mind is that if inventory is so low, with multiple offers more frequently in all price ranges, why the sales numbers not reflect that.
Shouldn’t we be seeing shorter DOM numbers and shouldn’t the Sales Price % of List Price be higher due to upward pressure on prices? The answer really has to do with the time frames being compared. The Active and Pending numbers are as of the end of April. Sales numbers are being pulled from the previous 4 months with properties that went pending 30 to 60 days prior to that.
The sales numbers are still reflecting what was going on in the market as much as 6 months ago, whereas the Active and Pending numbers are reflecting what is going on in the market right now. The sales numbers will eventually catch up and reflect what we’re seeing now as being a strong seller’s market, but it may take a few months before we actually see and read about it in the newspapers.
Of course one of the many issues this causes is that buyers are now having a difficult time with appraisals. Comps only a few months old may no longer be an accurate representation of value in a market moving upward.
As always, I’m available if you want to talk about the market, or explore your options for buying, selling or investing in East Bay real estate. You can reach me directly at 510.333.4460.
You can download an entire copy of Glens Numbers through April 2012 here.
Other Recent News
Stunned Home Buyers Find the Bidding Wars Are Back – April 27, 2012, Wall Street Journal – Nick Timiraos
Competitive bidding in the current environment isn’t producing huge price increases or leaving sellers with hefty profits, as occurred during the housing boom. Still, the bidding wars caused by tight inventory provide the latest evidence that housing demand is starting to pick up after a six-year-long slump.
“We very much believe we’ve hit bottom,” said Ivy Zelman, chief executive of a research firm, who was among the first to warn of a downturn seven years ago. Earlier this week, she raised her home-price forecast for the year, calling for a 1% annual gain, up from a 1% decline.
Inventory levels in many markets were at the lowest level in years. Nearly 83% of offers that Redfin agents have made on behalf of clients in the San Francisco Bay area this year and 71% in Southern California have had competing bids.
Further Decline in California Foreclosure Activity - April 24, 2012 – DQNews
The number of California homes entering the formal foreclosure process during the first quarter declined to its lowest level in almost five years, the result of a more stable economy and housing market, as well as policies that increasingly favor short sales, a real estate information service reported.
Bay Area Home Sales Continue to Rise. Condo Sales Jump. - April 19, 2012 – DQNews
March home sales in the Bay Area were at their highest level for that month in five years, the result of lower prices, low interest rates and an improving economy. Prices appeared to be leveling off across more of the region and may be poised to start inching back up in the stronger submarkets, a real estate information service reported.
California pending home sales up for third straight month, highest level in nearly three years - April 24, 2012 – C.A.R.
California pending home sales posted higher for the third consecutive month in March, rising from both the previous month and year, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.) reported today. Additionally, the share of distressed sales dropped for the second consecutive month, as equity sales typically increase with the start of the spring home buying season.
East Bay Housing Data – Glen’s Numbers through December 2011
January 9, 2012 by Glen Bell · View Comments
Well, 2012 is officially here & I just finished compiling the lastest batch of Glen’s East Bay Housing Numbers… here they are.
The December numbers
- 2011 comes to a close on the verge of what appears to be a market in transition. Inventory of homes for sale have dropped for the 8th consecutive month bringing us to the lowest levels since December of 2009.
- The month’s supply for the combined 38 city area that I track is now 1.9 months, far below normal, and again reaching lows we haven’t seen since December of 2009.
- Our Pending/Active Ratio has increased again to 1.54, normally considered in a seller’s market range. Keep in mind that this number is overstated due to the large number of short sales that remain in pending status for longer periods than normal.
- Distressed properties, (REOs and Short Sales), are still a large part of our local markets. 54% of the active listings, 78% of our pending sales (primarily due to the large number of short sales – 61%), and 52% of the sales over the last 4 months are distressed properties.
Some Comments on “What’s this All Mean?”
I asked this question a couple of months ago; “With lower home prices and record low interest rates, why aren’t more people buying now?”
Well, in a sense they are. It really comes to where and in what price range. We’re seeing an increase in activity at the lower priced home market levels in many areas where the focus is with first time home buyers and investors. Increased demand coupled with lower inventory is beginning to place an upward pressure on prices. We’re beginning to see an increase in multiple offers. For both counties combined (Alameda & Contra Costa), 51.2% of sales over the past 4 months fall into this lower end price range (below $300,000).
The mid price levels ($300,000 to $750,000) continue to be sluggish primarily due to a lack “move-up” buyers who have experienced a loss of equity in their own homes, plus the uncertainty of the economy, including job concerns and the difficulty in obtaining a loan.
The pending and active graphs, attached, seem to be following a similar pattern that we saw happen during 2009 and at the beginning half of 2010. Inventory levels reached their low point in December 2009 before rebounding the beginning of 2010. If early indications hold up, we may see inventory pick up again at the start of the year, followed by an increase in pendings, and in the months supply. The beginning of 2010 experienced a slight seller’s market. Will history repeats itself?
Other Recent News
Bay Area Home Prices Low, Sales Creep Up December 14, 2011 – DQNews
Bay Area home sales were ahead of 2010 for the fifth month in a row in November, despite limited mortgage availability and sluggish high-end sales. The median sale price fell again on a year-over-year basis, partly because of the slowdown in sales above the mid point for prices, a real estate information service reported.
“These days, buyers and sellers have to contend with two sets of problems, which sometimes play into each other and sometimes conflict with each other. The first is the lousy economy and the opportunities it presents, for better or worse. The second is the dysfunctional mortgage finance system. Interest rates may be at record lows, but the types of mortgages that are available have been drastically reduced and qualifying is a true grind,” said John Walsh, DataQuick president.
“This creates uncertainty. Many potential buyers and sellers appear to be in a frame of mind that says, ‘when in doubt, don’t,’” he said.
Bay Area home prices expected to stabilize in 2012
After years of decline, housing prices are expected to stabilize or even increase in some parts of the Bay Area this year, according to a new forecast.
Stabilizing prices are a sign of a healthier market, even though homebuyers still face challenges — tight credit, not many homes for sale and competition from investors paying cash.
In a report to be released Monday, Clear Capital, a real estate valuations company in Truckee, predicts that prices will remain almost flat this year — compared with a 4.7 percent drop in 2011 — in the San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont metropolitan area, including Contra Costa County.
As always, I’m available if you want to talk about the market, or explore your options for buying, selling or investing in East Bay real estate. You can reach me directly at 510.333.4460.
You can download an entire copy of Glens Numbers through December 2011 here .
KRON4 News Interviews Glen for Bay Area Housing Segment
October 20, 2011 by Andy Kaufman · View Comments
MEBA team member (and resident housing analyst) Glen Bell was recently featured in a piece that KRON4 news did on the Bay Area housing market. Its always an adventure to see what makes it into the finished piece, but I think it came out pretty well.
To recap Glen’s points:
- Sellers aren’t getting the prices that they were getting several years ago & everybody is reluctant to take less.
- We’re looking at another 3-5 years where local housing markets are going to be relatively flat.
- Still, with prices coming down as far as they have, combined with historically low interest rates, it makes for one of the best buying opportunities that we’ve seen in a long time.
Glen's East Bay Housing Numbers Through August 2010
September 7, 2010 by Glen Bell · View Comments
The August edition of Glen’s East Bay Housing Numbers is here & at the risk of sounding like a broken record, we’re seeing a continuation of the recent trends. Inventory still rising and the number of pending transactions (listings in contract, but not yet closed) continues to decline.
Taking a look of Pending Listings/Active Listings, this month we’re sitting at .86, which continues the downward trend back into buyer’s market territory (<1.00). It will be interesting to see if this downward velocity continues next month. Based on what we’re noticing with our own listings, my inclination is that we’ll start to see a reduction in the velocity of the downward trend.
So in summary, the August edition of Glen’s numbers shows that inventory is up, pendings are down & the pending over active ratio continues to trend back to the a buyer’s market. I spent a good portion of the weekend compiling some additional data for the past few months in Contra Costa & Alameda counties, which we’ll be publishing in the next few days, so stay tuned for that.
As always, I’m available if you want to talk about the market, or explore your options for buying, selling or investing in East Bay real estate. You can reach me directly at 510.333.4460.
You can also download the entire copy of my numbers through August 31st here.
Glen's October East Bay Housing Numbers
November 2, 2009 by Glen Bell · View Comments
Here’s a snapshot of the San Francisco East Bay Real Estate Market through October 31st. I run these numbers monthly and have been tracking 38 cities since 2005. I primarily look at two indicators, Months Supply and Pending Over Active ratios.
Pending Over Active ratio relates to buyers and sellers. Basic Econ 101, Supply and demand. Actives (represents sellers), or properties that are still available, versus Pending (represents buyers), or properties leaving the market. That relationship often indicates whether we’re in a “sellers or buyers” market.
A ratio of 1 (an equal number of Actives and Pending) is considered a normal market or in a state of equilibrium. Anything under (high inventory, few buyers), prices are flat or dropping. Anything above (low inventory, many buyers) is considered a seller’s market.
The trend since earlier this year indicates that we are in a “sellers” market in most cities. However, one factor that may be skewing the numbers is that there are longer escrows due to REOs and increased government loans.
Months Supply, Basically, months supply is the ratio of inventory to sales. What it tells us is how many months the stock of homes for sale would last, if sales continued at their current rate. Six months supply is considered normal or equilibrium.
We are currently at a two month supply of houses for sale for the entire 38 cities that I track. Many cities are now below that level with a few even below 30 days. This is also an indicator that we are in a “sellers” market in most cities.
DOM, (Days On Market), continue to decrease in most areas. Houses are going into escrow quicker. However, once in escrow, they are taking longer to close.
Also, the relationship between what, on average, homes are selling for to list price support this. We’re seeing properties in many areas getting multiple offers and actually now, on average, selling at or above the average list price. The spreadsheet takes into account sales by city during the last 4 months.
Areas that were hit hardest last year due to high inventories and downward pressure on prices due to the high number of distressed properties on the market, are now starting to see some recovery, especially in the lower priced areas. Examples would be in East Contra Costa along highway 4, (Pittsburg, Antioch, Brentwood, even Concord). More recently, in West Contra Costa in the San Pablo, Richmond, Pinole, Hercules areas).
Finally, we are starting to see a slight increase in foreclosed properties coming onto the market. 17% of active listings are foreclosed properties (REOs), as compared to 14% last month.
Call me if you’d like to chat more in depth about the San Francisco East Bay market.
-Glen 510-333-4460
Download a PDF w/ the rest of Glen’s Numbers 10-31-09
-Glen 510-333-4460
Glen’s Latest East Bay Housing Numbers
October 4, 2009 by Glen Bell · View Comments
Here’s a snapshot of the San Francisco East Bay Real Estate Market. I run these numbers monthly and have been tracking 38 cities since 2005. The spreadsheet indicates that inventories are still decreasing and are now at their lowest levels since I began this process (May 2005).
DOM (Days on Market) is decreasing, months supply in most areas have reached lows, and the relationship between what, on average, homes are selling for to list price support this. We’re seeing properties in many areas getting multiple offers and actually now, on average, selling at or above the average list price.
Areas that were hit hardest last year due to high inventories and downward pressure on prices due to the high number of distressed properties on the market, are now starting to see some recovery, especially in the lower priced areas. Examples would be in East Contra Costa along highway 4, (Pittsburg, Antioch, Brentwood, even Concord). More recently, in West Contra Costa in the San Pablo, Richmond, Pinole, Hercules areas).
Pendings have increased dramatically. However, this is due in part to longer escrow periods and a larger number of short sale transactions.
Call me if you’d like to chat more in depth about the San Francisco East Bay market.
-Glen 510-333-4460
Bay Area Foreclosures Lead the Way
April 21, 2008 by Glen Bell · View Comments
Anyone having read this years headlines has been hearing the same message about real estate; Inventory is up, Sales are down and Prices are down. However, little has been said about the relationship of foreclosures to our markets except in a very general manner, at least not until a recent article in the San Francisco’s Chronicle finally got it right. “Housing market muddle,” written by Carolyn Said, ran in this Wednesday’s paper.
The article talks about how foreclosures are influencing the markets. As always, these articles are never specific enough, nor quite up to date. The article uses DQ News as a source. This is definitely a great source to be using. However, the numbers used are always based on last month or the prior month. The principal message in it’s article “Bay Area home sales remain at a 2 year low,” is that “Last month’s median price in the Bay Area was 19.4 percent lower than the peak median of $665,000 reached last June and July.” The spreadsheet breaks down numbers by counties.
I’ve taken this a step further because markets are much more localized. You can view “Glen’s Numbers” (taken as of April 15), and broken down by city, HERE.
The influence that foreclosures have on markets is becoming greater than ever. The relationship between inventories, sales, prices, and REO (foreclosures), becomes a little clearer. Since February 1, 2008, in the last 2 and half months, 36% of all sales in the Bay Area have been foreclosures. Typically, banks do not spend much on curb appeal, repairs, clean-ups, staging, etc. They lead with price, and are finally becoming very aggressive as a means to lead the way in sales of those cities with far too much inventory.
Investors and buyers are now recognizing that foreclosed properties for sale are running at a discount. The message, “More people can afford to buy,” is clear, and REO (foreclosures), are getting picked up as bargains.
Those cities that have been influenced the least with price reductions are areas that typically have very little foreclosed properties and lower inventories;
Berkeley has a 2.7 months supply of homes on the market. Only 4% of its sales since 2/1/08 have been REOs.
On the other extreme, Pittsburg has a 27.3 months supply of homes on the market. 81% of its sales since 2/1/08 have been REOs.
Again, I encourage you to view the complete list of the 38 cities in the East Bay Area in the above link.
East Bay Housing Market Stats: Another REO Surprise!
February 27, 2008 by Glen Bell · View Comments
As a follow-up to last month’s REO surprise, “that one out of every five listings in the SF Bay Area is REO, Bank Owned Properties,” we asked ourselves another question.
What is really influencing housing inventory and pricing in the SF Bay Area?
We’ve always heard that new construction has been the main culprit with overbuilding leading to a glut of houses for sale. All that new housing located along highway 4, Antioch, Brentwood, Pittsburg, Oakley seems to have led the way. After all, those areas are seeing between a 15 to 25% drop from last year’s prices. (Median prices compared on a year to year basis for January).
So we ran some numbers again using DQ News and EBRD MLS services to see which has the greatest influence over listings and sales on a city by city basis. Numbers were pulled as of January 31, 2008.
SURPRISED again!
Well, with all of the subprime fallout, foreclosures, and REO news rolling around in the news, maybe it really isn’t such a surprise.
The following list seems to put it in perspective.
Glen’s East Bay housing numbers
Reasons may vary, and differ depending on location. However, it is apparent that REOs, Bank Owned Properties, are now, the major influence on housing inventory and sales in the SF Bay Area.
Banks are the competition in a big way for sellers. Banks think differently about selling. Banks are becoming more aggressive in selling their properties. Not much in show or presentation, simply priced below the competition.
In many of our conversations this week, we’ve been hearing that activity has picked up. The word seems to be that “investors” are looking for bargains in the marketplace.
We have to agree that we are seeing that with our own REO listings. So we have to ask ourselves the next big question, will investors be leading the way?
Maybe they’re smart enough to realize that timing a real estate market bottom is next to impossible. Maybe with low interest rates, lots of choices, and not many other buyers out there, this just may be the right time to pick up a bargain.
SF East Bay Housing Statisitics & REO Surprise
January 16, 2008 by Glen Bell · View Comments
It seems that every day now, we see more and more properties for sale that are listed as REO (Bank Owned Foreclosures), and/or Short Sales.
Our team, has always run numbers as a means to better understand our markets. We researched the EBRD multiple listings service, following a conversation that we had last night. We were not surprised as to which cities had a higher percentage of REOs.
However, we did not expect the number for the entire San Francisco East Bay area to be this high, 21%. That means that roughly one in five houses that are for sale, are Bank Owned in the East Bay area. The interesting factor is that this number does not include “Short Sales.”
When lenders allow a home to be sold for less than the amount still owing on the mortgage loan, that’s called a pre-closure “Short Sale!”
I think you can see where this is going once you add “short sales” into the mix as well. The competition for many houses for sale in the market are from banks.
Here’s our spreadsheet tracking cities in the San Francisco East Bay Area for Months Supply and REOs. Months supply is the ratio of inventory to sales. It tells us how many months the stock of homes for sale would last, if sales continued at their current rate.
2008-01-16 Glen’s Numbers & Months Supply
For those living in other parts of the country, we’d love to hear what’s happening in your market. We’ve already heard from one Las Vegas agent, that 20.8% of their listings are REOs or short sales.
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