East Bay Housing Data – Glen’s Numbers through March 2011
April 10, 2011 by Glen Bell · View Comments
The latest East Bay Housing numbers are in and they’re showing a slight increase in inventory levels and in pendings compared to February. Pendings are up about 3.1% over last month.
Sales remain sluggish. We’re seeing, as a trend in most cities, days on market slowly increasing, median prices decreasing slightly and the average sales price coming down slightly in comparison to the average list price.
Our Pending/Active Ratio has slightly increased to .90, still indicating that we are, on the whole, in a “buyer’s market,” but slowly returning towards a “normal” market.
The months supply remained steady at 3.3 months, still above the 2.5 month supply we saw last year at this time.
Looking Forward
I saw this post from DQ News Bay Area Housing Market Stuck In Neutral; Investors, Cash Buyers Active & thought it accurately describes what I think is in store for the Bay Are housing market.
“Over the next few months we’ll begin to see how much of the pent-up demand will play out during the traditional spring-summer home-buying season. Our sense is that we could see sales jump significantly from today’s subpar levels if the economic outlook improves, people start feeling more secure in their jobs and credit terms loosen. Some potential buyers also want to see evidence that prices have bottomed. Of course, one group will have to sit this home-buying season out: Those who don’t have enough, if any, equity in their homes.”
As always, I’m available if you want to talk about the market, or explore your options for buying, selling or investing in East Bay real estate. You can reach me directly at 510.333.4460.
You can download an entire copy of Glen’s East Bay Housing Numbers Through March 2011 here.
East Bay Housing Data – Glen’s Numbers through February 2011
March 7, 2011 by Glen Bell · View Comments
This month’s edition of Glen’s East Bay Housing Numbers is in and February seemed somewhat uneventful on the surface.
Inventory stayed relatively even compared to January with a slight increase seen in pending sales, up about 8.5%. The months supply remained steady at 3.3 months, still well above the 2 month supply we saw last year.
The Pending/Active Ratio increased to .88, still indicating that we are still, on the whole, in a mild buyer’s market.
Sales continue to remain sluggish. We’re seeing, as a trend in most cities, days on market slowly increasing, median prices decreasing slightly and the average sales price coming down slightly in comparison to the average list price.
Other Recent News
“Bay Area home sales took their normal plunge from December last month but rose slightly from a year ago as prices edged lower. Although investors stayed quite active, many potential buyers and sellers continued to play a waiting game, while new-home sales dropped to the lowest level in more than two decades.” DQ News
As always, I’m available if you want to talk about the market, or explore your options for buying, selling or investing in East Bay real estate. You can reach me directly at 510.333.4460.
You can download the entire copy of Glens East Bay Housing Numbers through Feb-2011 here.
Glen’s East Bay Housing Numbers Through January 2011
February 14, 2011 by Admin · View Comments
We’re one month into 2011 & here is the latest edition of my East Bay Housing Numbers.
• January brought an increase in inventory, up 5.4%. However, the number of listings still far exceed the levels we saw at the same time last year. There are now 6,582 homes listed in the 38 cities that I cover, as compared to 4,289 for last January. The months supply now sits at 3.3 months, still well above the 2 month supply we saw last year.
• Pending sales, (homes that have gone into contract), have remained relatively flat, now at 5,342. This is below the levels we saw last January, at 6,164.
• Our Pending/Active Ratio has slightly decreased to .81, still indicating that we are, on the whole, in a “buyer’s market.”
• Sales remain sluggish. We’re seeing, as a trend in most cities, days on market slowly increasing, median prices decreasing slightly and the average sales price coming down slightly in comparison to the average list price.
After experiencing a slight double dip in Bay Area home prices, it’s starting to look like we might be closer to a true bottom.
From Carolyn Said’s recent article in the San Francisco Chronicle: Home prices to hit bottom this year, report says…
Stan Humphries, Zillow Chief economist, predicts that the Bay Area and many other markets should hit bottom this year – but that doesn’t mean values will start rising anytime soon.
“I expect a long, flat bottom,” he said. “Most markets will remain in malaise for an extended period of time. It will take at least three years to see more normal appreciation rates, i.e., in the 2 to 4 percent range.”
The reasons? The foreclosure pipeline is still clogged with properties, many homeowners are underwater and unemployment continues apace. About 23 percent of Bay Area homeowners with a mortgage are underwater, owing more than their house is worth.
Home values in the Bay Area experienced a “double dip.” They had risen for five consecutive quarters under the influence of federal and state home-buying tax credits, only to fall again in both the third and fourth quarter of 2010.
As always, I’m available if you want to talk about the market, or explore your options for buying, selling or investing in East Bay real estate. You can reach me directly at 510.333.4460.
You can download the entire copy of Glens East Bay Housing Numbers through Jan-2011 here
Glen’s East Bay Housing Numbers Through December 2010
January 5, 2011 by Glen Bell · View Comments
Glen’s December East Bay Housing NumbersHappy 2011 to everyone out there. Here’s the latest edition of my East Bay Housing Numbers.
- For the second straight month, we’ve seen a decline in inventory, down 21.7% since the beginning of October. However, the number of listings still far exceed the levels we saw at the same time last year. There are now 6,247 homes listed in the 38 cities I cover, as compared to 3,690 for last December. The months supply now sits at 3.1 months, below October’s level of 3.9 months but still well above the 1.7 months we saw last December.
- Pending sales, (homes that have gone into contract), have kept pace with the decline in inventory, now at 5,995. This is below the levels we saw last December, at 6,133.
- Our Pending/Active Ratio has only slightly increased to .85, an improvement, but still indicating that we are, on the whole, in a “buyer’s market.”
- Sales remain sluggish for Alameda and Contra Costa Counties, down 11.4%, which is roughly about the same that we saw last year in December.
- The share of foreclosure listings has increased 6.7% since midyear. Foreclosure activity remains high by historical standards but below peak levels reached over the last two years.
- The median price for Alameda and Contra Costa Counties are both below midyear and December of last year;
Related Bay Area Housing News
DQNEWS: Bay Area November Home Sales, Median Price Down from a Year Ago
“Clearly, Bay Area buyers and sellers who can wait this market out, are doing just that. And if you’re buying or selling in the upper half of the market, it’s self-evident that you’re more able to put your move on hold,” said John Walsh, MDA DataQuick president.
“The thing is, demand is accumulating. And at some point the market will kick back into gear. It’s possible that prices have bottomed out, and it seems likely that today’s interest rates won’t be around a year from now. There will be catch-up activity, but the big question is timing. We’ll have to see what happens with employment, the economy, and with today’s tight credit,” he said.
Los Angeles Times: When will housing come back in California? Five experts offer their views
Foreclosures in the state are still high. Sales of new homes are at historic lows. And millions of homeowners are underwater on their mortgages. So what’s the outlook for 2011 and beyond?
My opinion is that we’ll see minimal increases in both sales volume & appreciation in the East Bay area. Distressed properties will continue to play a role for the foreseeable future. Jobs and interest rates will be driving factors.
As always, I’m available if you want to talk about the market, or explore your options for buying, selling or investing in East Bay real estate. You can reach me directly at 510.333.4460.
You can download the entire copy of Glens East Bay Housing Numbers through Dec 31-2010 here
Glen’s December East Bay Housing Numbers (through November 2010)
December 9, 2010 by Glen Bell · View Comments
This month’s edition of Glen’s East Bay Housing Numbers is in and while sales are down from last year, the market continues to hold stable.
- November was the first month that we have seen a significant decline in inventory since the beginning of the year. 7,226 for the 38 cities tracked in Alameda and Contra Costa County. This is about a 7.5% decrease from the month before. The months supply for the area dropped as well from a 3.9 month supply, a high for the year to, a 3.6 months supply. Typically we see a seasonal drop in inventory this time of year. However, we usually see this trend beginning a couple of months earlier.
- We saw a small decrease for the amount of pending sales at 5,995, (homes that have gone into contract). This is well below the levels we saw in November of last year, 6,750.
- Our Pending/Active Ratio has increased from .78 to .83, an improvement, but still indicating that we are, on the whole, in a “buyer’s market.”
- Sales remain sluggish for Alameda and Contra Costa Counties, down 29% since mid year and down 36% as compared to the previous November in 2009.
- We also saw, across the board, that discounts were greater than the month before. The discount for what homes were selling at in comparison to asking, on average had slightly increased.
What does the future hold for the East Bay housing market? I think jobs are going to be key to any sustained recovery, which means that I’m keeping an eye on the local employment figures and C.A.R. President Beth L. Peerce echos my sentiment.
“Persistent worries about the economy and job security are affecting home sales, despite low mortgage rates and strong affordability” (link)
From most accounts it looks like we’re in for a slow recovery. The latest UCLA Anderson Forecast is forecasting
“Modest growth and distressingly high unemployment” for most of 2011, with an acceleration of growth late next year that will gradually lower the unemployment rate.”
As always, I’m available if you want to talk about the market, or explore your options for buying, selling or investing in East Bay real estate. You can reach me directly at 510.333.4460.
You can download the entire copy of Glen’s East Bay Housing Numbers through 11.30.10 here.
Additional reading;
DQ News, Bay Area Home Sales Fall Sharply; Median Price Dips Below Last Year
Glen's East Bay Housing Numbers (Through October 2010)
November 11, 2010 by Glen Bell · View Comments
The October edition of Glen’s numbers is in, and it looks like the East Bay housing market is stabilizing a bit.
- October marked the first month since the beginning of the year that we did not see an increase in inventory. However, we are still 114% greater than where we started, 7,803 homes now listed compared to 3,690 as of 12/31/2009. Typically, we see a drop as the summer ends.
- Although we saw no real change in October for the amount of pending sales, (homes that have gone into contract), they are back to their January levels due to a 22% decrease since 4/30/2010, (the federal and state incentives deadline).
- Our Pending/Active Ratio of .78 now indicates that we are, on the whole, back in a “buyer’s market.”
- Months supply has increased from 1.7 months at the beginning of the year to 3.9 months now.
Is It the Right Time to Buy?
I have to agree with Robert Kleinhenz, chief economist with C.A.R. (California Association of Realtors), in his article from last week, Home Buying Trifecta: Right House, Right Price, Right Rate.
The months ahead offer a prime opportunity to seek the home buying trifecta: finding the right home at the right price for the right mortgage rate. Here’s why:
• First, there is a wider variety of homes on the market now, including a mix of REOs, short sales, and conventional or non-distressed homes for sale. …
• Second, home prices have stabilized or risen in most California markets for at least a year, but still remain well below the peak levels of the last decade. …
• Third, mortgage rates are at their lowest levels in over 50 years, pushing the monthly payment down dramatically….
If you’re looking to buy property in the East Bay right now, you’re doing so in a market that we haven’t encountered in quite a while.
As always, I’m available if you want to talk about the market, or explore your options for buying, selling or investing in East Bay real estate. You can reach me directly at 510.333.4460.
You can download the entire copy of Glen’s East Bay Housing Numbers Through October 2010 here.
Glen's East Bay Housing Numbers Through September 2010
October 6, 2010 by Glen Bell · View Comments
The September East Bay Housing Numbers are in and inventory continues to rise in Contra Costa and Alameda Counties as sales remain sluggish.
• We have seen a 114% increase since the beginning of the year on the amount of homes that are now for sale. Typically, we see a drop as the summer ends.
• Pending sales, (homes that have gone into contract), are on the decline, down 22% since 4/30/2010, (the federal and state incentives deadline).
• Sales are down 8.5% since the end of May.
• Months supply has increase from 1.7 months at the beginning of the year to 3.8 months now.
• Finally our Pending/Active Ratio of .78 now indicates that we are, on the whole, back in a “buyer’s market.”
This week I wanted to bring in some recent news sources to help make some sense out of what we’re seeing here in the Bay Area.
1) CAR (California Association of Realtors) released their 2011 California Housing Market Forecast on Oct 4, 2010. They forecast that we would see a small increase in sales and median price for California in 2011 at 2% each.
Here’s a quote from their article that I felt was very relevant;
“The situation in the California housing market continues to be a tale of two housing markets,” said (C.A.R. President Steve) Goddard. The segment of the market under $500,000 has been driven by distressed sales, while higher-priced areas of the state have been constrained by restricted financing options, and increasingly have experienced an increase in the number of distressed properties. Sales in the low end have been constrained by a lack of inventory, putting upward pressure on prices. Multiple offers on lower-end homes have been very common, according to Goddard.
“A lean supply of available homes for sale will drive prices up at the low end, but larger inventories and limited, less attractive financing will cause continued softness at the high end,” said Appleton-Young. “There’s some indication that lenders will accelerate the number of foreclosures coming on market, further adding to the housing supply, but we do not anticipate that lenders will flood the market with distressed properties,” she said.
2) From another article found in the Wall Street Journal blog yesterday, by Dawn Wotapka, titled “Housing Inventory Climbs Again in September;”
“Housing inventories, which typically dip as the summer ends, rose for the ninth straight month in September, indicating that sales remain weak as the downturn drags on.”
“More inventory is the last thing housing needs. Current sellers face a bleak picture: Despite record-low interest rates and falling prices, some home shoppers remain fearful of signing contracts as unemployment remains elevated. Those ready to buy may think that prices will fall further, providing little incentive to act quickly. Given tightened lending restrictions, others want to buy but cannot. Some sellers, meanwhile, can’t trim prices any further without selling for less than they owe. And the foreclosure crisis continues–and some banks have halted foreclosures, further gumming up the works.”
3) A final quote from a DQNews article, Bay Area Homes Sales Drop to 1992 Level; Median Price Slips Again;
“The magnitude of the sales slowdown suggests that, among other things, many would-be buyers are holding off for further price cuts, which would be most likely where an inventory spike meets slackening demand. The trick is to keep one eye on mortgage rates. If they jump, it could erase the benefit of a modest price drop.”
As always, I’m available if you want to talk about the market, or explore your options for buying, selling or investing in East Bay real estate. You can reach me directly at 510.333.4460.
You can also download the entire copy of Glen’s Numbers Through September 2010 here
A Closer Look Into the Fundamental Shift in the East Bay Housing Market
September 9, 2010 by Glen Bell · View Comments
photo credit Angelo DeSantis
While compiling the monthly numbers for August, I decided to take a closer look at sales during the ups and downs we’ve experienced over the past few years. The news we’re hearing today seems to always focus on one or more of these questions:
1. Sales. Are we seeing more or less in our local markets?
2. What’s going on with price?
3. How much of a factor are distressed properties?
I wanted to identify trends in our market without getting into too much detail. I looked at sales of single family homes in Alameda and Contra Costa Counties by focusing on key months.
- Current Month (August 2010)
- End of Year (December 2009)
- Last Year (August 2009)
- “Trough” (February 2009)
- “Peak” (May 2007)
What I looked at was changes in markets that have occurred in; sales, price, price levels and the influence of distressed properties. As we’ve already seen, the “mix” (sales by price levels), and the influence of distressed properties are very important factors.
“Peak” and “Trough” months were identified as such for the San Francisco Bay Area by the California Association of Realtors (based on average median price). Price levels were also suggested by CAR as a means of further breaking down markets to identify what the actual “mix” has been on sales for any given month.
In looking at what is considered our “Peak,” you can see how high price was for both counties compared to the “Trough” and our current market.
Peak (May 2007) to Trough (February 2009)
1) Average Sales Price;
Alameda County, Down 52.5% Contra Costa County, Down 64.5%
2)Median Price;
Alameda County, Down 54% Contra Costa County, Down 69.8%
Although there has been some recovery since the “Trough,” we are still well below the “Peak” of May, 2007.
Peak (May 2007) to Current (August 2010)
1) Average Sales Price;
Alameda County, Down 33.6% Contra Costa County, Down 44.6%
2) Median Price;
Alameda County, Down 36.7% Contra Costa County, Down 56.0%
The Weight of Distressed Properties on the East Bay Housing Market
We gain some additional insight by taking a closer look at what sold, “mix” (price levels), and how much the market has been influenced by distressed property over the last few years.
During the “Peak”, May 2007, distressed properties had very little influence in our market. As we experienced “the credit meltdown” with economic/employment concerns, more and more foreclosures came onto the market increasing inventories adding downward pressure to home values. The “Trough,” (our lowest median price levels), was when distressed properties were at their highest levels.
Alameda County Distressed Sales as a % of Total Sales
Contra Costa County Distressed Sales as a % of Total Sales
“Mix” (Price Levels)
Lower priced home sales were very minimal during the “Peak” with the bulk of the sales coming from price levels above $500,000 for both counties, and even more importantly, looking at houses under the $300,000 price range.
Here are the total sales in Alameda country from the Peak in May ’07 to Now. Notice, the “mix” has changed dramatically.
& here’s the data for Contra Costa County. Once again, notice how the “mix” has changed dramatically.
Take some precaution in making comparisons based on Median Price because the “mix” in sales will always “skew” the numbers. If the “mix” in sales changes from fewer lower priced homes to many as has happened in our market over the past few years, the change will appear to be more dramatic than it actually is. This has led to some recent misleading headlines and interpretations.
In summary, I believe that it is safe to say that the “mix” of sales, based on price levels, has dramatically changed. During the “Peak” sales were primarily over $500,000 with very few foreclosures. Over the past 3.5 years, we’ve seen an increase in the number of distressed properties. The ease of credit and the psychology of the markets prior to the “peak” were both factors that led to an increase in inventories fueled by the number of foreclosures coming onto the market.
We’re now seeing far more activity in the lower price levels, primarily below $500,000. Homes are now more affordable, investment activity has increased, plus federal incentives and low interest rates have been factors at this level.
Glen's East Bay Housing Numbers Through August 2010
September 7, 2010 by Glen Bell · View Comments
The August edition of Glen’s East Bay Housing Numbers is here & at the risk of sounding like a broken record, we’re seeing a continuation of the recent trends. Inventory still rising and the number of pending transactions (listings in contract, but not yet closed) continues to decline.
Taking a look of Pending Listings/Active Listings, this month we’re sitting at .86, which continues the downward trend back into buyer’s market territory (<1.00). It will be interesting to see if this downward velocity continues next month. Based on what we’re noticing with our own listings, my inclination is that we’ll start to see a reduction in the velocity of the downward trend.
So in summary, the August edition of Glen’s numbers shows that inventory is up, pendings are down & the pending over active ratio continues to trend back to the a buyer’s market. I spent a good portion of the weekend compiling some additional data for the past few months in Contra Costa & Alameda counties, which we’ll be publishing in the next few days, so stay tuned for that.
As always, I’m available if you want to talk about the market, or explore your options for buying, selling or investing in East Bay real estate. You can reach me directly at 510.333.4460.
You can also download the entire copy of my numbers through August 31st here.
Glen's East Bay Housing Numbers Through July 2010
August 5, 2010 by Glen Bell · View Comments
This market has seen some dramatic swings over the past 3 years.
To put this in perspective, I’ve attached some slides borrowed from a presentation by Leslie Appleton-Young, Vice-President & Chief Economist for C.A.R. (California Association of Realtors).
Included are the following (3) slides:
- Median Price of Existing Detached Homes
- Peak vs. Trough Price
- Trough vs. Current Price – May 2010.
The first slide takes us on a wild ride from the Median Price Peak for the San Francisco Bay Area of $852,713 in May of 2007, down to the Trough we saw in February 2009 at $399,040, followed by some recovery at $592,930 as of May 31, 2010.
The other two slides demonstrate how our region, the San Francisco Bay Area has stacked up to others in the state.
Does this mean we’re seeing recovery for the Bay Area Real estate markets?
According to C.A.R.’s 2010 Market Outlook (as of 6/18/2010), California will see a small decrease in sales during 2010, down 4.7% from last year, but a 9.1% increase in median price.
Let’s take a closer look at what’s happened since December of 2009 to today.
I try to look for trends in the 38 cities that I follow, (in Alameda and Contra Costa Counties). December’s numbers showed inventories at their lowest levels since I started tracking these numbers back in 2005.
(Click on images to view the larger versions)
Here are the East Bay housing highlights since December:
- 94.4% increase in inventory, (Active Listings) – From 3,690 to 7,164
- 6.2% increase in pendings, (listings that have gone into contract) – From 6,133 to 6,517
- 45.2% drop in the Pending/Active ratio – from 1.66 to .91
- Month’s supply has doubled – From a 1.7 Month supply to a 3.4 month supply.
So, as a summary, we normally see an increase from December into early summer for both the number of homes that come onto the market and the number that go into contract. This year had an unusually high amount come onto the market. Distressed sales contributed 46% of this market, (REO/Foreclosures and Short sales). This has become slightly less of a factor since the end of last year where 54% were distressed properties.
Pending sales increased as well through April, but since have dropped off. We have seen a 12.8% drop in pendings since April 30, 2010, perhaps indicating the influence of the federal and state incentive programs.
The Month’s supply of homes that are for sale has increased from a low of 1.7 months at the beginning of the year to a 3.4 month supply now. The long range average for California is 7.2 months as stated by C.A.R. (California Association of Realtors). However, the San Francisco Bay Area tends to fair better than the rest of the state with a long range average considered to be closer to a range of between a 5 to 6 month supply of homes for sale.
This is in line with what we are seeing in the ratio between active listings and pending sales. The ratio at the beginning of the year was at a high of 1.66, (low inventories with a high number of buyers going into contract indicating a stronger seller’s market). We are now looking at a ratio of 0.91.
So what’s in store for the East Bay housing market?
It’s difficult to make a blanket prediction for the entire Bay Area due the many differences in local markets. Lower price ranges vs. med to high end markets are behaving differently. Demand is also determined on a city by city, even neighborhood by neighborhood basis. We’re seeing more properties come onto the market, sitting longer and experiencing more price reductions in the mid to high end ranges. Even with that, there’s still not enough inventory for investor and home owner demand in the lower price range areas.
A few months from now, I think we’ll be talking about a modest decline in sales numbers along with a continued increase in inventory, with the pendulum continuing to swing from the brief seller’s market we experienced in early spring back into a buyer’s market with opportunities, as long as the rates stay low. If rates start to rise however, I think the market will suffer and we’ll see the additional 2-8% decline in home values by next July that Moody’s recently forecasted.
I’m always available if you want to talk about the market, or explore your options for buying, selling or investing in East Bay real estate. You can reach me directly at 510.333.4460.
You can also download the entire copy of my numbers through July 31st here.
–Glen Bell
Equal Housing Opportunity. Equal Opportunity Employer.